Will Chase Bisontis be the 3rd Offensive Lineman (Offensive Tackle, Guard, or Center) drafted
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 17% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
17%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$129K
20 contracts
Top contract
6¢
$76K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
16 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Chase Briscoe
Will Chase Briscoe be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner?: Chase Briscoe
KXNASCARRACE-WR4PBL26-CHBR
Will Chase Briscoe be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Chase Briscoe
KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-CBRI
Will Chase Briscoe finish in the top 10 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY?: Chase Briscoe
KXNASCARTOP10-WR4PBL26-CHBR
Cluster 2
Will Chase Elliott
Will Chase Elliott be the Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY Winner?: Chase Elliott
KXNASCARRACE-WR4PBL26-CHEL
Will Chase Elliott finish in the top 5 at NASCAR Würth 400 presented by LIQUI MOLY?: Chase Elliott
KXNASCARTOP5-WR4PBL26-CHEL
Will Chase Elliott be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Chase Elliott
KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-CELL
Cluster 3
Will Carson Beck win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Carson Beck win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Carson Beck
KXNFLOROTY-27-CBEC
Cluster 4
Will Tyrese Maxey be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team
Will Tyrese Maxey be selected to the 2025-26 All-Pro Basketball 3rd Team?: Tyrese Maxey
KXNBA3RDTEAM-26-TMAX
Cluster 5
Will Makai Lemon win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Makai Lemon win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Makai Lemon
KXNFLOROTY-27-MLEM
Cluster 6
Will Jordyn Tyson win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Jordyn Tyson win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jordyn Tyson
KXNFLOROTY-27-JTYS
Cluster 7
Will Jadarian Price win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Jadarian Price win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jadarian Price
KXNFLOROTY-27-JPRI
Cluster 8
Will KC Concepcion win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will KC Concepcion win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: KC Concepcion
KXNFLOROTY-27-KCON
Cluster 9
Will Xavier Becerra finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary
Cluster 10
Will Eli Stowers win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Eli Stowers win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Eli Stowers
KXNFLOROTY-27-ESTO
Cluster 11
Will Fernando Mendoza win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Fernando Mendoza win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Fernando Mendoza
KXNFLOROTY-27-FMEN
Cluster 12
Will Renan Santos finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 13
Will Carnell Tate win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Carnell Tate win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Carnell Tate
KXNFLOROTY-27-CTAT
Cluster 14
Will legislation that amends the Food and Nutrition Act of 2008 by modifying the statutory definition of “food” (eligible for purchase with SNAP benefits) to specifically include “hot rotisserie chicken” become law before Jan 1, 2027
Will legislation that amends the Food and Nutrition Act of 2008 by modifying the statutory definition of “food” (eligible for purchase with SNAP benefits) to specifically include “hot rotisserie chicken” become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act
KXBILLS-HRCA
Cluster 15
Will Jeremiyah Love win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Jeremiyah Love win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jeremiyah Love
KXNFLOROTY-27-JLOV
Cluster 16
Will Ja'Marr Chase win the Offensive Player of the Year
Will Ja'Marr Chase win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Ja'Marr Chase
KXNFLOPOTY-27-JCHA
What moved the line
- May 2Tyrese Maxey↓26pp60→34¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act↑15pp41→56¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Chase Elliott↓14pp25→11¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Tyrese Maxey↓11pp34→23¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Chase Elliott↑10pp11→21¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.