Will Chase Bisontis be the 3rd Offensive Lineman (Offensive Tackle, Guard, or Center) drafted
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 18% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
18%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$469
12 contracts
Closes
Feb 28, 2028
617 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “Will Chase Elliott be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion” vs “Will Carson Beck win the Offensive Rookie of the Year”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Chase Elliott be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion
Will Chase Elliott be the NASCAR Cup Series Champion?: Chase Elliott
KXNASCARCUPSERIES-NCS26-CELL
Cluster 2
Will Carson Beck win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Carson Beck win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Carson Beck
KXNFLOROTY-27-CBEC
Cluster 3
Will Jordyn Tyson win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Jordyn Tyson win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jordyn Tyson
KXNFLOROTY-27-JTYS
Cluster 4
Will Jeremiyah Love win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Jeremiyah Love win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jeremiyah Love
KXNFLOROTY-27-JLOV
Cluster 5
Will Renan Santos finish 3rd in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election
Cluster 6
Will legislation that amends the Food and Nutrition Act of 2008 by modifying the statutory definition of “food” (eligible for purchase with SNAP benefits) to specifically include “hot rotisserie chicken” become law before Jan 1, 2027
Will legislation that amends the Food and Nutrition Act of 2008 by modifying the statutory definition of “food” (eligible for purchase with SNAP benefits) to specifically include “hot rotisserie chicken” become law before Jan 1, 2027?: Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act
KXBILLS-HRCA
Cluster 7
Will Jadarian Price win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Jadarian Price win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jadarian Price
KXNFLOROTY-27-JPRI
Cluster 8
Will Fernando Mendoza win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Fernando Mendoza win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Fernando Mendoza
KXNFLOROTY-27-FMEN
Cluster 9
Will Makai Lemon win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Makai Lemon win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Makai Lemon
KXNFLOROTY-27-MLEM
Cluster 10
Will KC Concepcion win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will KC Concepcion win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: KC Concepcion
KXNFLOROTY-27-KCON
Cluster 11
Will Carnell Tate win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Carnell Tate win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Carnell Tate
KXNFLOROTY-27-CTAT
Cluster 12
Will Ja'Marr Chase win the Offensive Player of the Year
Will Ja'Marr Chase win the Offensive Player of the Year?: Ja'Marr Chase
KXNFLOPOTY-27-JCHA
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Chase Bisontis will be the third offensive lineman selected in the 2026 NFL Draft. At 18%, the market suggests it's unlikely but possible he lands in that specific tier. The main drivers are draft board positioning relative to other offensive line prospects and whether teams address the position early. Teams' actual draft behavior, as they make selections leading up to and around the relevant picks, represents the primary catalyst that will resolve this uncertainty. The market will calibrate substantially based on mock draft patterns and any injuries or performance changes among competing offensive linemen through the remainder of the pre-draft process.
- ›Current offensive lineman talent pool depth and relative rankings of prospects competing for early selection slots
- ›Number of offensive linemen projected to go in Round 1 versus Rounds 2-3, which directly determines the field of potential third selections
- ›Teams' demonstrated need and priority for offensive line versus other positions as reflected in pre-draft reporting and trade activity
- ›Individual performance and athletic testing results at the NFL Combine and pro days that could shift prospect valuations
- ›Previous draft patterns showing typical distribution of offensive linemen selections by position type (tackle vs. guard vs. center)
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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