Will there be more than 10 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $8 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 6¢ price potentially unreliable. The 2494.7% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of a thin market where minimal capital can move prices dramatically, and the 26¢ spread reflects genuine uncertainty about fair value rather than tight pricing. Historically, Atlantic hurricane seasons average 7-8 hurricanes annually, making the >10 threshold a relatively rare event (roughly 20-30% probability in typical years), suggesting the 6% price may be undervalued, though the neutral regime score and recent 1¢ price decline warrant caution before taking a contrarian position.

Resolution rules

If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 10 hurricanes of hurricane category 1 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade