Will there be more than 6 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 62% probability that Will there be more than 6 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?. This contract trades at 62¢ on Kalshi, closing December 2, 2026. This illiquid market has experienced sharp downward price movement, declining from 37¢ to 16¢ over seven days, suggesting recent bearish sentiment on above-normal Atlantic hurricane activity in 2026.
Analysis
This illiquid market has experienced sharp downward price movement, declining from 37¢ to 16¢ over seven days, suggesting recent bearish sentiment on above-normal Atlantic hurricane activity in 2026. The 52¢ spread and minimal $0 in 24-hour volume indicate severe liquidity constraints, making the 599% implied yield on the Yes side potentially misleading given execution risk. With 229 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, traders are pricing in a below-historical-average hurricane season, though the extreme yield differential warrants caution before treating this as a reliable probability estimate.
Resolution rules
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 6 hurricanes of hurricane category 1 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T6 yes 100