Will there be more than 4 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 76% probability that Will there be more than 4 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?. This contract trades at 76¢ on Kalshi, closing December 2, 2026. The market is pricing an exceptionally high 90% probability that 2026 will exceed the 4-hurricane threshold, yet the extreme 504% implied yield on the No side and near-zero 24-hour volume suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine consensus.
Analysis
The market is pricing an exceptionally high 90% probability that 2026 will exceed the 4-hurricane threshold, yet the extreme 504% implied yield on the No side and near-zero 24-hour volume suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine consensus. The 13¢ spread, elevated realized volatility of 120%, and minimal information arrival rate (0.4/h) indicate this contract lacks active price discovery, making the 90¢ quote potentially unreliable for directional conviction. With 229 days to expiration and only $154.54 in open interest, this appears to be a thinly-traded seasonal market where the Yes price may reflect anchoring bias rather than fundamental hurricane forecasting.
Resolution rules
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 4 hurricanes of hurricane category 1 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T4 yes 100