Will there be more than 8 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Will there be more than 8 Atlantic hurricanes in 2026?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Kalshi, closing December 2, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $72.57 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 35¢ price potentially unreliable.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $72.57 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 35¢ price potentially unreliable. The 777.4% implied yield on the Yes side is a red flag indicating thin liquidity rather than genuine opportunity, while the 30¢ spread represents a massive 86% gap between bid-ask. The price has collapsed 53% over seven days (from 23¢ to 17¢), suggesting either shifting sentiment on Atlantic hurricane frequency or simply low-confidence pricing in an illiquid market with 229 days to expiry.
Resolution rules
If the NOAA's National Hurricane Center records more than 8 hurricanes of hurricane category 1 or above between January 1, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXHURCTOT-26DEC01-T8 yes 100