Will Los Angeles FC record the first goal of the game
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2
9 contracts
Closes
Aug 9, 2026
17 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Will no goal be scored” vs “Will Inter Miami CF record the first goal of the game”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will no goal be scored
Cluster 2
Will Inter Miami CF record the first goal of the game
Will Inter Miami CF record the first goal of the game?: Inter Miami CF
KXMLSFTTS-26JUL25MTLMIA-MIA
Cluster 3
Will Los Angeles FC record the first goal of the game
Will Los Angeles FC record the first goal of the game?: Los Angeles FC
KXMLSFTTS-26JUL25LAFCSKC-LAFC
Cluster 4
Will Minnesota United FC record the first goal of the game
Will Minnesota United FC record the first goal of the game?: Minnesota United FC
KXMLSFTTS-26JUL25MINVAN-MIN
Cluster 5
Will Portland Timbers record the first goal of the game
Will Portland Timbers record the first goal of the game?: Portland Timbers
KXMLSFTTS-26JUL25PORRSL-POR
Cluster 6
Will Real Salt Lake record the first goal of the game
Will Real Salt Lake record the first goal of the game?: Real Salt Lake
KXMLSFTTS-26JUL25PORRSL-RSL
Cluster 7
Will Colorado Rapids record the first goal of the game
Will Colorado Rapids record the first goal of the game?: Colorado Rapids
KXMLSFTTS-26JUL25STLCOL-COL
Cluster 8
Will Saint Louis City SC record the first goal of the game
Will Saint Louis City SC record the first goal of the game?: Saint Louis City SC
KXMLSFTTS-26JUL25STLCOL-STL
Analysis
This probability represents the chance that Los Angeles FC scores the opening goal in their next match. At 37%, LAFC is the second-most-likely team to score first among the contracts available, trailing only Los Angeles Galaxy at 45%, while three other teams are priced lower. The market is essentially pricing LAFC as a moderate contender for first-goal honors. Factors influencing this probability include team form, offensive efficiency, defensive strength of the opposing team, and recent goal-scoring patterns. The match outcome will be determined when the game is played and either LAFC scores first, another team scores first, or the game ends goalless. Current trading volume shows minimal activity, suggesting limited recent information or betting interest on these specific first-goal contracts.
- ›LAFC's recent goal-scoring rate and shot conversion percentage compared to typical opening-match patterns
- ›Opponent's defensive record and early-game defensive performance in recent matches
- ›Starting lineup composition and availability of LAFC's key attacking players
- ›Historical data on which teams score first in MLS matches involving comparable-strength opponents
- ›Match timing and venue (home vs. away), as first-goal probability can vary based on these factors
What moved the line
- Jul 23Los Angeles FC↑25pp25→50¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Los Angeles FC↑9pp16→25¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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