SimpleFunctions
20 source contracts·Kalshi 20·refreshed just now·Closes Sep 17, 2026 · 66d

Will Green Bay win the Green Bay vs Minnesota Pro Football game

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 20 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

50%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

50%

20 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$6K

20 contracts

Closes

Sep 17, 2026

66 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 48% (29 days, 29 points)Aggregate: 48% on 2026-07-11
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 29d

Bracket families

19 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 30% of their title tokens — “Will Los Angeles” vs “Will San Francisco win the San Francisco vs Los Angeles R Pro Football game”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Will Los Angeles

2 contracts$484

Cluster 2

Will San Francisco win the San Francisco vs Los Angeles R Pro Football game

1 contract$1K

Cluster 3

Will Seattle win the New England vs Seattle Pro Football game

1 contract$974

Cluster 4

Will New England win the New England vs Seattle Pro Football game

1 contract$778

Cluster 5

Will Las Vegas win the Miami vs Las Vegas Pro Football game

1 contract$416

Cluster 6

Will Chicago win the Chicago vs Carolina Pro Football game

1 contract$360

Cluster 7

Will Green Bay win the Green Bay vs Minnesota Pro Football game

1 contract$316

Cluster 8

Will Tennessee win the New York J vs Tennessee Pro Football game

1 contract$274

Cluster 9

Will Dallas win the Dallas vs New York G Pro Football game

1 contract$270

Cluster 10

Will Kansas City win the Denver vs Kansas City Pro Football game

1 contract$231

Cluster 11

Will Denver win the Denver vs Kansas City Pro Football game

1 contract$231

Cluster 12

Will New Orleans win the New Orleans vs Detroit Pro Football game

1 contract$204

Cluster 13

Will Miami win the Miami vs Las Vegas Pro Football game

1 contract$139

Cluster 14

Will Detroit win the New Orleans vs Detroit Pro Football game

1 contract$135

Cluster 15

Will Cleveland win the Cleveland vs Jacksonville Pro Football game

1 contract$90

Cluster 16

Will Carolina win the Carolina vs Arizona Pro Football game

1 contract$77

Cluster 17

Will New York G win the Dallas vs New York G Pro Football game

1 contract$75

Cluster 18

Will Atlanta win the Denver vs Atlanta Pro Football game

1 contract$51

Cluster 19

Will Pittsburgh win the Atlanta vs Pittsburgh Pro Football game

1 contract$17

Analysis

The 34% probability reflects the market's assessment that Green Bay is less likely than Minnesota to win their upcoming matchup. This level suggests Minneapolis enters as a modest favorite, with the 66% implied probability for Minnesota incorporating factors like recent team performance, roster composition, home-field advantage considerations, and head-to-head matchup dynamics. The probability will shift based on injury reports, weather conditions, and any significant roster changes between now and game day. The game itself will resolve all uncertainty when it's played, making pre-game developments and official team announcements the primary drivers of probability movement until kickoff.

  • Green Bay's current season win-loss record and recent performance trajectory compared to Minnesota's
  • Injury status of key players on both teams, particularly quarterbacks and defensive starters
  • Home-field advantage factors, including whether the game is played in Green Bay or Minnesota
  • Head-to-head historical matchup data and recent divisional performance between the two teams
  • Vegas betting line movement and professional oddsmaker assessment of the matchup

What moved the line

  • Jul 10Atlanta5pp2732¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 10San Francisco3pp3639¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 6Detroit3pp7774¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in sports

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.