SimpleFunctions
20 source contracts·Kalshi 20·refreshed just now·Closes Sep 24, 2026 · 28d

Will Green Bay win the Green Bay vs Minnesota Pro Football game

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 47% across 20 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

47%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

47%

20 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$35K

20 contracts

Closes

Sep 24, 2026

28 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 54% (30 days, 30 points)Aggregate: 54% on 2026-08-27
Aggregate of 20 contracts · 30d

Bracket families

13 clusters across 20 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Chicago vs Carolina Pro Football game: C

2 contracts$16K

Cluster 2

Green Bay vs Minnesota Pro Football game

2 contracts$4K

Cluster 3

Dallas vs New York G Pro Football game

2 contracts$4K

Cluster 4

Miami vs Las Vegas Pro Football game

2 contracts$3K

Cluster 5

Denver vs Kansas City Pro Football game

2 contracts$2K

Cluster 6

Buffalo vs Houston Pro Football game

2 contracts$2K

Cluster 7

Cleveland vs Jacksonville Pro Football game

2 contracts$560

Cluster 8

Washington vs Philadelphia Pro Football game: Philadelphia wins

1 contract$1K

Cluster 9

New York J vs Tennessee Pro Football game: New York J wins

1 contract$988

Cluster 10

Tampa Bay vs Cincinnati Pro Football game: Tampa Bay wins

1 contract$556

Cluster 11

Arizona vs Los Angeles C Pro Football game: Arizona wins

1 contract$462

Cluster 12

Los Angeles R wins: Los Angeles R

1 contract$25

Cluster 13

New York G wins: New York G

1 contract$0

Analysis

The 34% probability reflects the market's assessment that Green Bay is less likely than Minnesota to win their upcoming matchup. This level suggests Minneapolis enters as a modest favorite, with the 66% implied probability for Minnesota incorporating factors like recent team performance, roster composition, home-field advantage considerations, and head-to-head matchup dynamics. The probability will shift based on injury reports, weather conditions, and any significant roster changes between now and game day. The game itself will resolve all uncertainty when it's played, making pre-game developments and official team announcements the primary drivers of probability movement until kickoff.

  • Green Bay's current season win-loss record and recent performance trajectory compared to Minnesota's
  • Injury status of key players on both teams, particularly quarterbacks and defensive starters
  • Home-field advantage factors, including whether the game is played in Green Bay or Minnesota
  • Head-to-head historical matchup data and recent divisional performance between the two teams
  • Vegas betting line movement and professional oddsmaker assessment of the matchup

What moved the line

  • Aug 26Los Angeles R30pp2959¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in sports

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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