Will Green Bay win the Green Bay vs Minnesota Pro Football game
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 47% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
47%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$35K
20 contracts
Closes
Sep 22, 2026
27 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “San Francisco” vs “New England vs Seattle Pro Football game”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
San Francisco
San Francisco vs Los Angeles R Pro Football game: San Francisco wins?: San Francisco
KXNFLGAME-26SEP10SFLAR-SF
San Francisco vs Los Angeles R Pro Football game: Los Angeles R wins?: Los Angeles R
KXNFLGAME-26SEP10SFLAR-LAR
San Francisco wins: San Francisco
KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MIASF-SF
Cluster 2
New England vs Seattle Pro Football game
Cluster 3
Green Bay vs Minnesota Pro Football game
Cluster 4
Dallas vs New York G Pro Football game
Cluster 5
Cleveland vs Jacksonville Pro Football game
Cluster 6
Baltimore vs Indianapolis Pro Football game: Indianapolis wins
Baltimore vs Indianapolis Pro Football game: Indianapolis wins?: Indianapolis
KXNFLGAME-26SEP13BALIND-IND
Cluster 7
Denver vs Kansas City Pro Football game: Denver wins
Denver vs Kansas City Pro Football game: Denver wins?: Denver
KXNFLGAME-26SEP14DENKC-DEN
Cluster 8
New York J vs Tennessee Pro Football game: New York J wins
New York J vs Tennessee Pro Football game: New York J wins?: New York J
KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NYJTEN-NYJ
Cluster 9
Miami vs Las Vegas Pro Football game: Miami wins
Miami vs Las Vegas Pro Football game: Miami wins?: Miami
KXNFLGAME-26SEP13MIALV-MIA
Cluster 10
Miami wins: Miami
Miami wins: Miami
KXNFLGAME-26SEP20MIASF-MIA
Cluster 11
Buffalo vs Houston Pro Football game: Buffalo wins
Buffalo vs Houston Pro Football game: Buffalo wins?: Buffalo
KXNFLGAME-26SEP13BUFHOU-BUF
Cluster 12
Chicago vs Carolina Pro Football game: Chicago wins
Chicago vs Carolina Pro Football game: Chicago wins?: Chicago
KXNFLGAME-26SEP13CHICAR-CHI
Cluster 13
Arizona vs Los Angeles C Pro Football game: Arizona wins
Arizona vs Los Angeles C Pro Football game: Arizona wins?: Arizona
KXNFLGAME-26SEP13ARILAC-ARI
Cluster 14
Los Angeles R wins: Los Angeles R
Los Angeles R wins: Los Angeles R
KXNFLGAME-26SEP21NYGLAR-LAR
Analysis
The 34% probability reflects the market's assessment that Green Bay is less likely than Minnesota to win their upcoming matchup. This level suggests Minneapolis enters as a modest favorite, with the 66% implied probability for Minnesota incorporating factors like recent team performance, roster composition, home-field advantage considerations, and head-to-head matchup dynamics. The probability will shift based on injury reports, weather conditions, and any significant roster changes between now and game day. The game itself will resolve all uncertainty when it's played, making pre-game developments and official team announcements the primary drivers of probability movement until kickoff.
- ›Green Bay's current season win-loss record and recent performance trajectory compared to Minnesota's
- ›Injury status of key players on both teams, particularly quarterbacks and defensive starters
- ›Home-field advantage factors, including whether the game is played in Green Bay or Minnesota
- ›Head-to-head historical matchup data and recent divisional performance between the two teams
- ›Vegas betting line movement and professional oddsmaker assessment of the matchup
What moved the line
- Aug 26San Francisco↑31pp48→79¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 26Los Angeles R↑24pp29→53¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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