Will Green Bay win the Green Bay vs Minnesota Pro Football game
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 49% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6K
20 contracts
Closes
Sep 17, 2026
66 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
17 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Will Los Angeles” vs “Will Pittsburgh win”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Los Angeles
Will Los Angeles R win the San Francisco vs Los Angeles R Pro Football game?: Los Angeles R
KXNFLGAME-26SEP10SFLAR-LAR
Will Los Angeles R win the Los Angeles R vs Kansas City Pro Football game?: Los Angeles R
KXNFLGAME-26AUG15LARKC-LAR
Will Los Angeles C win the Arizona vs Los Angeles C Pro Football game?: Los Angeles C
KXNFLGAME-26SEP13ARILAC-LAC
Cluster 2
Will Pittsburgh win
Cluster 3
Will San Francisco win the San Francisco vs Los Angeles R Pro Football game
Will San Francisco win the San Francisco vs Los Angeles R Pro Football game?: San Francisco
KXNFLGAME-26SEP10SFLAR-SF
Cluster 4
Will Seattle win the New England vs Seattle Pro Football game
Will Seattle win the New England vs Seattle Pro Football game?: Seattle
KXNFLGAME-26SEP09NESEA-SEA
Cluster 5
Will New England win the New England vs Seattle Pro Football game
Will New England win the New England vs Seattle Pro Football game?: New England
KXNFLGAME-26SEP09NESEA-NE
Cluster 6
Will Las Vegas win the Miami vs Las Vegas Pro Football game
Will Las Vegas win the Miami vs Las Vegas Pro Football game?: Las Vegas
KXNFLGAME-26SEP13MIALV-LV
Cluster 7
Will Chicago win the Chicago vs Carolina Pro Football game
Will Chicago win the Chicago vs Carolina Pro Football game?: Chicago
KXNFLGAME-26SEP13CHICAR-CHI
Cluster 8
Will Green Bay win the Green Bay vs Minnesota Pro Football game
Will Green Bay win the Green Bay vs Minnesota Pro Football game?: Green Bay
KXNFLGAME-26SEP13GBMIN-GB
Cluster 9
Will Dallas win the Dallas vs New York G Pro Football game
Will Dallas win the Dallas vs New York G Pro Football game?: Dallas
KXNFLGAME-26SEP13DALNYG-DAL
Cluster 10
Will New Orleans win the New Orleans vs Detroit Pro Football game
Will New Orleans win the New Orleans vs Detroit Pro Football game?: New Orleans
KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NODET-NO
Cluster 11
Will Denver win the Denver vs Kansas City Pro Football game
Will Denver win the Denver vs Kansas City Pro Football game?: Denver
KXNFLGAME-26SEP14DENKC-DEN
Cluster 12
Will Detroit win the New Orleans vs Detroit Pro Football game
Will Detroit win the New Orleans vs Detroit Pro Football game?: Detroit
KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NODET-DET
Cluster 13
Will Cleveland win the Cleveland vs Jacksonville Pro Football game
Will Cleveland win the Cleveland vs Jacksonville Pro Football game?: Cleveland
KXNFLGAME-26SEP13CLEJAC-CLE
Cluster 14
Will Philadelphia win the Washington vs Philadelphia Pro Football game
Will Philadelphia win the Washington vs Philadelphia Pro Football game?: Philadelphia
KXNFLGAME-26SEP13WASPHI-PHI
Cluster 15
Will Washington win the Washington vs Philadelphia Pro Football game
Will Washington win the Washington vs Philadelphia Pro Football game?: Washington
KXNFLGAME-26SEP13WASPHI-WAS
Cluster 16
Will New York J win the New York J vs Tennessee Pro Football game
Will New York J win the New York J vs Tennessee Pro Football game?: New York J
KXNFLGAME-26SEP13NYJTEN-NYJ
Cluster 17
Will Atlanta win the Atlanta vs Pittsburgh Pro Football game
Will Atlanta win the Atlanta vs Pittsburgh Pro Football game?: Atlanta
KXNFLGAME-26SEP13ATLPIT-ATL
Analysis
The 34% probability reflects the market's assessment that Green Bay is less likely than Minnesota to win their upcoming matchup. This level suggests Minneapolis enters as a modest favorite, with the 66% implied probability for Minnesota incorporating factors like recent team performance, roster composition, home-field advantage considerations, and head-to-head matchup dynamics. The probability will shift based on injury reports, weather conditions, and any significant roster changes between now and game day. The game itself will resolve all uncertainty when it's played, making pre-game developments and official team announcements the primary drivers of probability movement until kickoff.
- ›Green Bay's current season win-loss record and recent performance trajectory compared to Minnesota's
- ›Injury status of key players on both teams, particularly quarterbacks and defensive starters
- ›Home-field advantage factors, including whether the game is played in Green Bay or Minnesota
- ›Head-to-head historical matchup data and recent divisional performance between the two teams
- ›Vegas betting line movement and professional oddsmaker assessment of the matchup
What moved the line
- Jul 10Los Angeles R↓30pp59→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9Los Angeles R↑27pp32→59¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7Los Angeles R↑4pp31→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 10San Francisco↑3pp36→39¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 6Detroit↓3pp77→74¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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