Will Allisha Gray win All-Star Game MVP in the 2026 season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$400K
6 contracts
Closes
Aug 8, 2026
13 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Caitlin Clark win All-Star Game MVP in the 2026 season
Will Caitlin Clark win All-Star Game MVP in the 2026 season?: Caitlin Clark
KXWNBAASGMVP-26-CCLARK22
Cluster 2
Will Jonquel Jones win All-Star Game MVP in the 2026 season
Will Jonquel Jones win All-Star Game MVP in the 2026 season?: Jonquel Jones
KXWNBAASGMVP-26-JJONES35
Cluster 3
Will Kelsey Mitchell win All-Star Game MVP in the 2026 season
Will Kelsey Mitchell win All-Star Game MVP in the 2026 season?: Kelsey Mitchell
KXWNBAASGMVP-26-KMITCHELL0
Cluster 4
Will Olivia Miles win All-Star Game MVP in the 2026 season
Will Olivia Miles win All-Star Game MVP in the 2026 season?: Olivia Miles
KXWNBAASGMVP-26-OMILES5
Cluster 5
Will Dominique Malonga win All-Star Game MVP in the 2026 season
Will Dominique Malonga win All-Star Game MVP in the 2026 season?: Dominique Malonga
KXWNBAASGMVP-26-DMALONGA14
Cluster 6
Will Nneka Ogwumike win All-Star Game MVP in the 2026 season
Will Nneka Ogwumike win All-Star Game MVP in the 2026 season?: Nneka Ogwumike
KXWNBAASGMVP-26-NOGWUMIKE3
Analysis
This represents a 6% chance that Allisha Gray will be named MVP of the 2026 WNBA All-Star Game. The probability reflects market expectations based on player performance, All-Star selection likelihood, and historical voting patterns for All-Star Game MVPs. The current level is driven by Gray's individual performance relative to other WNBA players and her likelihood of being selected to the All-Star roster. The main catalyst will be the All-Star Game itself, scheduled for 2026, where MVP voting occurs after the game concludes. Gray's probability could shift based on her regular-season statistics, injury status, All-Star voting results, and her performance in the actual game. Relative to other candidates listed—particularly Caitlin Clark at 8¢—the market suggests Gray has moderate odds but faces significant competition from higher-ranked players.
- ›Allisha Gray's regular-season statistics and performance metrics compared to other eligible WNBA players
- ›Whether Gray is selected to the 2026 WNBA All-Star roster, which determines MVP eligibility
- ›Historical voting patterns for All-Star Game MVP, which tend to favor higher-usage players and leading scorers
- ›Gray's actual performance during the 2026 All-Star Game itself, including scoring, assists, and impact metrics
- ›Competitive landscape: current market shows 11 higher-probability candidates like Olivia Miles (11¢) and Caitlin Clark (8¢)
What moved the line
- Jul 22Caitlin Clark↑82pp2→84¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Caitlin Clark↓71pp84→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 26Jonquel Jones↑25pp4→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 26Caitlin Clark↑20pp14→34¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 26Kelsey Mitchell↓8pp11→3¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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