SimpleFunctions
15 source contracts·Kalshi 15·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 25, 2027 · 152d

Will Notre Dame reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 15 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

14%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

14%

15 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$4K

15 contracts

Closes

Jan 25, 2027

152 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 10% (30 days, 30 points)Aggregate: 10% on 2026-08-26
Aggregate of 15 contracts · 30d

Bracket families

14 clusters across 15 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Will Oklahoma” vs “Will Notre Dame reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Will Oklahoma

2 contracts$203

Cluster 2

Will Notre Dame reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game

1 contract$2K

Cluster 3

Will Ohio St. reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game

1 contract$525

Cluster 4

Will Oregon reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game

1 contract$340

Cluster 5

Will Texas Tech reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game

1 contract$270

Cluster 6

Will Texas reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game

1 contract$258

Cluster 7

Will Miami (FL) reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game

1 contract$120

Cluster 8

Will Arkansas reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game

1 contract$46

Cluster 9

Will Tennessee reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game

1 contract$25

Cluster 10

Will Georgia reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game

1 contract$10

Cluster 11

Will USC reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game

1 contract$9

Cluster 12

Will Alabama reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game

1 contract$1

Cluster 13

Will LSU reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game

1 contract$0

Cluster 14

Will Arizona reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game

1 contract$0

Analysis

This 13% probability indicates a 1-in-8 chance that Notre Dame reaches the College Football Playoff National Championship Game during the 2026 season. The relatively low odds reflect Notre Dame's historical competitiveness balanced against the high barrier of reaching a championship game—requiring both strong regular-season performance and favorable playoff seeding. The main drivers of this probability are Notre Dame's current roster strength, conference competition level, and injury developments through the season. The probability will shift materially as the regular season progresses, with Week 1 games in late August and early September providing the first concrete data on team performance. The Playoff selection committee's December announcement and bowl game outcomes will ultimately resolve whether Notre Dame advances to the championship game.

  • Notre Dame's strength of schedule and head-to-head results against top-25 opponents through the 2026 regular season
  • Comparison to peer probabilities: Oregon (22¢), Indiana (18¢), and Miami (19¢) suggests markets view Notre Dame as materially weaker than these contenders
  • Playoff selection committee's final rankings in December 2026 determine the four semifinalists; Notre Dame must finish in top-4 to advance to championship
  • Injury status of key players on offense and defense, particularly any losses that occur during the season
  • Conference affiliation and playoff seeding implications—strength of non-conference wins versus conference opponents

What moved the line

  • Aug 25Tennessee6pp28¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 20Oklahoma St.6pp17¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 26USC5pp83¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 24Ohio St.3pp2629¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 19Oregon3pp2522¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in sports

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.