Will Notre Dame reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$149
14 contracts
Closes
Jan 25, 2027
213 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Texas reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will Texas reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Texas
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-TEX
Cluster 2
Will Miami (FL) reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will Miami (FL) reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Miami (FL)
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-MIA
Cluster 3
Will Indiana reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will Indiana reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Indiana
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-IND
Cluster 4
Will Ohio St. reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will Ohio St. reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Ohio St.
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-OSU
Cluster 5
Will Alabama reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will Alabama reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Alabama
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-ALA
Cluster 6
Will Auburn reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will Auburn reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Auburn
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-AUB
Cluster 7
Will BYU reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will BYU reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: BYU
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-BYU
Cluster 8
Will California reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will California reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: California
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-CAL
Cluster 9
Will Clemson reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will Clemson reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Clemson
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-CLEM
Cluster 10
Will Georgia Tech reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will Georgia Tech reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Georgia Tech
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-GT
Cluster 11
Will Iowa reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will Iowa reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Iowa
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-IOWA
Cluster 12
Will James Madison reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will James Madison reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: James Madison
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-JMU
Cluster 13
Will LSU reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will LSU reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: LSU
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-LSU
Cluster 14
Will Michigan reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will Michigan reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Michigan
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-MICH
Analysis
This 10% probability reflects a relatively low likelihood that Notre Dame will advance to the College Football Playoff National Championship Game during the 2026 season. The market assessment is driven by two primary considerations: Notre Dame's historical performance and competitive positioning in college football, and the difficulty of reaching a championship game when eight teams qualify for the expanded playoff format. The regular season, culminating in early December 2026, represents the critical juncture—Notre Dame must achieve sufficient wins and rankings to secure a playoff berth, then win consecutive postseason games to reach the championship. Resolution will occur in January 2027 when the playoff semifinals and championship game conclude. The relatively low volume on this specific contract suggests modest market confidence compared to other football outcomes being traded.
- ›Notre Dame's 2025 final record and playoff seeding position will largely determine 2026 preseason expectations and baseline playoff probability
- ›The strength of Notre Dame's 2026 schedule, including conference opponents and nonconference matchups, directly affects their ability to compile a playoff-qualifying record
- ›Historical data shows teams with sub-50% championship game probability typically require either unexpected roster improvements or weak competitive peer performance to reach that threshold
- ›Market volume of $2,591 over 24 hours is substantial, suggesting active pricing but not exceptional attention compared to major team championship contracts
- ›Notre Dame's undefeated regular season probability is priced at 33¢, indicating the market views a championship game appearance as requiring near-perfect play
What moved the line
- Jun 23LSU↑4pp7→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24LSU↓4pp11→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Miami (FL)↑3pp19→22¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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