Will Notre Dame reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8K
18 contracts
Closes
Jan 25, 2027
151 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
17 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 9% of their title tokens — “Will Oklahoma” vs “Will Ohio St. reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Oklahoma
Cluster 2
Will Ohio St. reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will Ohio St. reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Ohio St.
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-OSU
Cluster 3
Will Texas reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will Texas reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Texas
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-TEX
Cluster 4
Will Notre Dame reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will Notre Dame reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Notre Dame
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-ND
Cluster 5
Will Georgia reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will Georgia reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Georgia
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-UGA
Cluster 6
Will LSU reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will LSU reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: LSU
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-LSU
Cluster 7
Will Indiana reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will Indiana reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Indiana
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-IND
Cluster 8
Will Oregon reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will Oregon reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Oregon
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-ORE
Cluster 9
Will Tennessee reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will Tennessee reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Tennessee
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-TENN
Cluster 10
Will Arkansas reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will Arkansas reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Arkansas
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-ARK
Cluster 11
Will Miami (FL) reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will Miami (FL) reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Miami (FL)
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-MIA
Cluster 12
Will Houston reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will Houston reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Houston
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-HOU
Cluster 13
Will Texas Tech reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will Texas Tech reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Texas Tech
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-TTU
Cluster 14
Will Michigan reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will Michigan reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Michigan
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-MICH
Cluster 15
Will Alabama reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will Alabama reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Alabama
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-ALA
Cluster 16
Will Washington reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will Washington reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Washington
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-WASH
Cluster 17
Will Arizona reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game
Will Arizona reach the College Football Playoff National Championship Game?: Arizona
KXNCAAFFINALIST-27-ARIZ
Analysis
This 13% probability indicates a 1-in-8 chance that Notre Dame reaches the College Football Playoff National Championship Game during the 2026 season. The relatively low odds reflect Notre Dame's historical competitiveness balanced against the high barrier of reaching a championship game—requiring both strong regular-season performance and favorable playoff seeding. The main drivers of this probability are Notre Dame's current roster strength, conference competition level, and injury developments through the season. The probability will shift materially as the regular season progresses, with Week 1 games in late August and early September providing the first concrete data on team performance. The Playoff selection committee's December announcement and bowl game outcomes will ultimately resolve whether Notre Dame advances to the championship game.
- ›Notre Dame's strength of schedule and head-to-head results against top-25 opponents through the 2026 regular season
- ›Comparison to peer probabilities: Oregon (22¢), Indiana (18¢), and Miami (19¢) suggests markets view Notre Dame as materially weaker than these contenders
- ›Playoff selection committee's final rankings in December 2026 determine the four semifinalists; Notre Dame must finish in top-4 to advance to championship
- ›Injury status of key players on offense and defense, particularly any losses that occur during the season
- ›Conference affiliation and playoff seeding implications—strength of non-conference wins versus conference opponents
What moved the line
- Aug 20Oklahoma St.↑6pp1→7¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25Tennessee↑6pp2→8¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Houston↑6pp2→8¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25Houston↓6pp8→2¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 27Ohio St.↓5pp29→24¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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