Top Coding AI this month
Leader sits at 95% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Claude
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
ChatGPT
Spread
92pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
5 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Top Coding AI this month
Analysis
This 85% probability indicates market participants believe Claude is most likely to be the top-performing coding AI during June 2026. The assessment reflects Claude's recent improvements in code generation and reasoning tasks. Key factors driving this level include Claude's performance in standardized coding benchmarks, developer adoption patterns across platforms, and how different AI systems rank on tasks like debugging, algorithmic problem-solving, and code quality. The probability would shift based on new benchmark releases, performance data from major AI evaluation firms, or announcements of significant capability updates from competing systems. As June concludes, final performance metrics and community feedback on coding tasks will determine the outcome.
- ›Claude's standing on public coding benchmarks (HumanEval, MBPP, etc.) relative to GPT-4, Gemini, and other competitors
- ›Monthly usage volume and developer preference data from major coding platforms (GitHub, LeetCode, Stack Overflow)
- ›Release dates and capabilities of competing coding AI models during June 2026
- ›Performance on domain-specific coding evaluations published by AI research organizations
- ›Community discussion sentiment and reported debugging/code-generation quality across developer forums
What moved the line
- Jun 19ChatGPT↓33pp67→34¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Claude↑21pp32→53¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Claude↑18pp53→71¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21ChatGPT↓16pp27→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Claude↑11pp85→96¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (95% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In technology
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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