AI Race: OpenAI Leads, but No Clear Winner
The market for the best AI model on Dec 31, 2026, shows OpenAI (14¢) as the slight favorite over Google (8¢) and Anthropic (2¢). The race is wide open, with high activity on release dates for GPT-6 and Claude Opus 6.
Cross-market probability snapshot
Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?: ChatGPT
11¢Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
9¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
The market for the best AI model on Dec 31, 2026, shows OpenAI (14¢) as the slight favorite over Google (8¢) and Anthropic (2¢).
- 02
The race is wide open, with high activity on release dates for GPT-6 and Claude Opus 6.
- 03
The battle for AI supremacy is being actively wagered on.
Full analysis
The battle for AI supremacy is being actively wagered on. The flagship market **KXLLM1-26DEC31** asks "Best AI on Dec 31, 2026?" and OpenAI is the frontrunner at **14¢**, but far from a lock. Google (8¢) and Anthropic (2¢) are the primary challengers, with a large chunk of the probability (65¢) assigned to the catch-all 'Anthropic' bucket, which likely includes future models or other contenders.
The release of next-generation models is a key catalyst. The market **KXGPT-OPEN-26SEP01** ("Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Sep 1, 2026?") trades at 12¢, while **KXCLAUDE-OPUS6-26SEP** (Will Anthropic release Opus 6 before Sep 1, 2026?) is at only 1¢. This suggests traders expect the next major model releases to be later in the year or into 2027.
Other noteworthy AI markets include **KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-14-** (SpaceX Starship launch before Sep 1, 2026: 18¢) and the weekly market share battle between DeepSeek (**KXDEEPSHARE-DEEP-24** at 83¢ this week) and OpenAI (**KXOPENSHARE-OPEN-15** at 77¢). The high probability on DeepSeek's current market share suggests it is seen as a potent competitor in the open-source space.
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sf query "best ai model 2026"