2026 Midterm Election Markets Signal Competitive Senate and Governor Races
Republicans are favored to win Florida's governorship at 80¢, while Democrats lead in Massachusetts at 94¢. The Senate control market is a toss-up (52¢ GOP, 48¢ Dem). High-volume individual Senate races include Texas (50¢ each party) and Michigan (63¢ Dem, 36¢ GOP).
Cross-market probability snapshot
Will the Republican party win the governorship in Florida: Byron Donalds
81¢Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party
47¢Will Democratics win the Senate race in Michigan?: Abdul El-Sayed
63¢Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: J.D. Vance
45¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
Republicans are favored to win Florida's governorship at 80¢, while Democrats lead in Massachusetts at 94¢.
- 02
The Senate control market is a toss-up (52¢ GOP, 48¢ Dem).
- 03
High-volume individual Senate races include Texas (50¢ each party) and Michigan (63¢ Dem, 36¢ GOP).
Full analysis
The 2026 midterm election landscape is taking shape with over 3.2M in total volume across election markets. The most liquid market is the Florida governorship (GOVPARTYFL-26-R) at 80¢ with 291,691 volume, reflecting strong GOP confidence. Senate control (CONTROLS-2026) shows 52¢ for Republicans and 48¢ for Democrats, a virtual tie. Key battleground Senate races include Texas (SENATETX-26) at 50¢ for both parties, Michigan (SENATEMI-26) at 63¢ Democrats vs 36¢ Republicans, and Minnesota (SENATEMN-26) at 92¢ Democrats. The 2028 presidential nomination markets are also active: J.D. Vance leads GOP at 43¢, while Bernie Sanders polls at 0¢. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is at 16¢ for the Democratic nomination. These long-duration markets are sensitive to news cycles and primary results.
Related markets
Source markets at a glance
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