Democrats Heavy House Favorites as Senate Battle Tightens
2026 midterm election markets show Democrats are strong favorites to retake the House at 82¢, while the Senate race is a toss-up with Republicans at 55¢. Key swing states: Michigan Senate leans Democratic (69¢), Maine Senate leans Democratic (63¢), and Texas Senate leans Republican (57¢). The Florida gubernatorial primary is a done deal for Byron Donalds at 96¢.
Cross-market probability snapshot
Will Democrats win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party
82¢Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026?: Republican Party
55¢Will Democratics win the Senate race in Michigan?: Democratic party
69¢Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maine?: Democratic party
62¢Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida?: Byron Donalds
95¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
2026 midterm election markets show Democrats are strong favorites to retake the House at 82¢, while the Senate race is a toss-up with Republicans at 55¢.
- 02
Key swing states: Michigan Senate leans Democratic (69¢), Maine Senate leans Democratic (63¢), and Texas Senate leans Republican (57¢).
- 03
The Florida gubernatorial primary is a done deal for Byron Donalds at 96¢.
Full analysis
The 2026 midterm election cycle is taking shape with clear market signals. CONTROLH-2026-D ("Will Democrats win the House in 2026?") trades at 82¢ with volume of 131,678, reflecting strong Democratic tailwinds. On the Senate side, CONTROLS-2026-R ("Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026?") is at 55¢ (volume: 9,757), making it a near-toss-up. The critical individual races: SENATEMI-26-D shows Michigan as Democratic-leaning at 69¢ (volume: 10,089), with the Democratic primary between Abdul El-Sayed (81¢, KXSENATEMID-26-AELS) and Haley Stevens (18¢, KXSENATEMID-26-HSTE) being the key event. SENATEME-26-D shows Maine at 63¢ Democratic (volume: 41,710), while SENATETX-26-R has Texas at 57¢ Republican (volume: 5,510). The gubernatorial races show less competitive dynamics: KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD has Byron Donalds at 96¢ for Florida Governor (volume: 34,733), and KXCAGOVPRIMARY1ST-26 has Xavier Becerra at 100¢ for California (volume: 7,314). The combined power markets are also active: KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO- ("Will House Control be Democratic AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027?") trades at 44¢ (volume: 140,208), suggesting the market sees a split Congress as the most likely outcome. Traders should monitor the Michigan and Maine primaries closely as they will set the general election matchups.
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