Fed Holds Steady: No Rate Change Expected in July
The KXFEDDECISION market shows an 84% probability of no rate hike at the July 2026 meeting, with over 100k volume. Traders are pricing in a pause as inflation data remains sticky.
Key takeaways
- 01
The KXFEDDECISION market shows an 84% probability of no rate hike at the July 2026 meeting, with over 100k volume.
- 02
Traders are pricing in a pause as inflation data remains sticky.
- 03
The Federal Reserve's July 2026 rate decision market (KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-) is the most active Fed contract with 100,877 volume.
Full analysis
The Federal Reserve's July 2026 rate decision market (KXFEDDECISION-26JUL-) is the most active Fed contract with 100,877 volume. The 'Hike by 0bps' outcome trades at 84¢, indicating overwhelming expectation of no change. The 'Cut by 25bps' outcome is only 1¢, and 'Hike by 25bps' is 15¢. This aligns with the broader economic data: CPI year-over-year at 3.7% (KXCPIYOY-26JUN-T3.7 trades at 64¢) and unemployment at 4.2% (KXU3-26JUN-T4.2 at 68¢). The market sees the Fed on hold, with rate cut probabilities for the rest of 2026 low (KXRATECUTCOUNT-26DEC shows '0 cuts' at 77¢). Traders should watch the July FOMC statement for any forward guidance; the KXFOMCGUIDE-26-FWD contract trades at 7¢, suggesting a low chance of explicit guidance. Key contracts to monitor: KXFEDDECISION-26JUL for the rate outcome, KXRATECUTCOUNT for year-end totals, and KXCPI for inflation prints. The high volume and tight spreads on the main decision contract make it a liquid vehicle for expressing views on monetary policy.
Related markets
Source markets at a glance
The contracts behind this dispatch — current price + 24h volume. Click any card for live orderbook data.
Zoom out
sf query "fed rate decision july 2026"