Trump Markets: Impeachment Odds at 65¢, Administration Turnover in Focus
Trump continues to be a major market driver with bets on his removal, apologies, and cabinet departures. The impeachment market (65¢) suggests traders see a real possibility of proceedings. The administration's turnover is also a focus.
Cross-market probability snapshot
Will Donald Trump leave office before 2028?: Before 2028
19¢Will the President be impeached before Jan 20, 2029?: Before Jan 20, 2029
66¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
Trump continues to be a major market driver with bets on his removal, apologies, and cabinet departures.
- 02
The impeachment market (65¢) suggests traders see a real possibility of proceedings.
- 03
The administration's turnover is also a focus.
Full analysis
Trump-related markets show high volume and interesting price points. The probability of Trump leaving office before 2028 is at 17¢ (KXTRUMPOUT27). Apology markets are split—36¢ that he will apologize (KXTRUMPAPOLOGY-27JAN) and 53¢ that he won't. His administration's cabinet departures are being bet on: Pete Hegseth leaving DoD is 26¢ (KXTRUMPADMINLEAVE-26). The chance of impeachment before 2029 is 65¢ (KXIMPEACH-29). These markets suggest trader uncertainty around Trump's tenure and administration stability. The high volume on these markets (some over 30,000) indicates active trading.
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Source markets at a glance
The contracts behind this dispatch — current price + 24h volume. Click any card for live orderbook data.
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sf book KXTRUMPOUT27