Will MAGA Inc.'s FEC-reported total disbursements value be above 100000000 during calendar year 2026
Leader sits at 93% across 11 bound outcomes, runner-up at 93%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 15 million dollars
Outcomes
11
winner-take-all
Runner-up
93¢
Above 20 million dollars
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$3
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
147 days
Venue
Kalshi
11 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will MAGA Inc.'s FEC-reported total disbursements value be above
Will MAGA Inc.'s FEC-reported total disbursements value be above 100000000 during calendar year 2026?: Above 100 million dollars
KXMAGAINCSPEND-26DEC31-A100000000
Will MAGA Inc.'s FEC-reported total disbursements value be above 75000000 during calendar year 2026?: Above 75 million dollars
KXMAGAINCSPEND-26DEC31-A75000000
Will MAGA Inc.'s FEC-reported total disbursements value be above 50000000 during calendar year 2026?: Above 50 million dollars
KXMAGAINCSPEND-26DEC31-A50000000
Will MAGA Inc.'s FEC-reported total disbursements value be above 40000000 during calendar year 2026?: Above 40 million dollars
KXMAGAINCSPEND-26DEC31-A40000000
Will MAGA Inc.'s FEC-reported total disbursements value be above 300000000 during calendar year 2026?: Above 300 million dollars
KXMAGAINCSPEND-26DEC31-A300000000
Will MAGA Inc.'s FEC-reported total disbursements value be above 30000000 during calendar year 2026?: Above 30 million dollars
KXMAGAINCSPEND-26DEC31-A30000000
Will MAGA Inc.'s FEC-reported total disbursements value be above 25000000 during calendar year 2026?: Above 25 million dollars
KXMAGAINCSPEND-26DEC31-A25000000
Will MAGA Inc.'s FEC-reported total disbursements value be above 200000000 during calendar year 2026?: Above 200 million dollars
KXMAGAINCSPEND-26DEC31-A200000000
Will MAGA Inc.'s FEC-reported total disbursements value be above 20000000 during calendar year 2026?: Above 20 million dollars
KXMAGAINCSPEND-26DEC31-A20000000
Will MAGA Inc.'s FEC-reported total disbursements value be above 150000000 during calendar year 2026?: Above 150 million dollars
KXMAGAINCSPEND-26DEC31-A150000000
Will MAGA Inc.'s FEC-reported total disbursements value be above 15000000 during calendar year 2026?: Above 15 million dollars
KXMAGAINCSPEND-26DEC31-A15000000
Analysis
This prediction estimates a 96% probability that MAGA Inc.'s total FEC-reported disbursements will exceed $100 million during 2026. The organization's spending level depends primarily on the intensity of political activity throughout the year and the specific campaigns or initiatives it funds. The probability reflects market confidence in substantial spending, though the exact threshold remains uncertain. Key catalysts include FEC quarterly filings, which provide official disbursement data throughout the year, and major political events that drive funding decisions. The market shows meaningful confidence gaps at higher thresholds: spending above $150 million trades at 48%, while $200 million sits at 30%, suggesting traders view $100 million as reasonably likely but further escalation as less certain. Year-to-date spending patterns and announced organizational priorities will be critical indicators for resolution.
- ›FEC quarterly filings scheduled for 2026 will provide official disbursement totals, directly confirming or contradicting spending projections
- ›MAGA Inc.'s stated priorities and announced campaign activities in late 2025 and early 2026 will indicate expected spending levels
- ›The $100 million threshold compared to the organization's historical 2024-2025 spending patterns provides a baseline for assessing likelihood
- ›Market pricing shows declining probabilities at $150M (48%) and $200M (30%), indicating consensus that $100M is achievable but higher levels less probable
- ›Major political events or changes in organizational leadership during 2026 could materially accelerate or reduce anticipated disbursements
What moved the line
- Sep 3Above 150 million dollars↓5pp46→41¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 4Above 200 million dollars↑5pp28→33¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 3Above 200 million dollars↓4pp32→28¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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