Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 1000000000 for fiscal year 2026
Leader sits at 96% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 37%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $1M
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
37¢
Above $10M
Spread
59pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
100 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above
Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 1000000 for fiscal year 2026?: Above $1M
KXCOMMGIFTS-26SEP30-T1000000
Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 4000000000 for fiscal year 2026?: Above $4B
KXCOMMGIFTS-26SEP30-T4000000000
Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 2000000000 for fiscal year 2026?: Above $2B
KXCOMMGIFTS-26SEP30-T2000000000
Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 1000000000 for fiscal year 2026?: Above $1B
KXCOMMGIFTS-26SEP30-T1000000000
Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 500000000 for fiscal year 2026?: Above $500M
KXCOMMGIFTS-26SEP30-A500000000
Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 100000000 for fiscal year 2026?: Above $100M
KXCOMMGIFTS-26SEP30-T100000000
Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 50000000 for fiscal year 2026?: Above $50M
KXCOMMGIFTS-26SEP30-A50000000
Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 10000000 for fiscal year 2026?: Above $10M
KXCOMMGIFTS-26SEP30-T10000000
Analysis
This market asks whether the Department of Commerce will receive more than $1 million in gifts and bequests during fiscal year 2026, which runs through September 30, 2026. The 91% probability reflects trader confidence that this threshold will be exceeded. The outcome hinges primarily on whether the Trump Gold Card Program generates meaningful donations to the department and the total voluntary gifts received. Historical gift receipts at Commerce vary significantly year to year, and the specific inclusion of "Trump Gold Card Program receipts" suggests a novel fundraising mechanism tied to the current administration. The resolution will depend entirely on official fiscal year 2026 financial reports released by the Department of Commerce, typically available several months after the fiscal year ends. Market prices across higher thresholds ($10M at 21%, $100M at 17%) indicate traders see significant probability mass between $1M and $10M in receipts.
- ›Historical Department of Commerce gift receipts must be examined to establish baseline expectations absent the Trump Gold Card Program
- ›The Trump Gold Card Program's actual revenue generation and whether proceeds are directed to Commerce determine the outcome more than routine gifts
- ›No trading volume on these contracts in the past 24 hours suggests limited market liquidity and potentially concentrated positions
- ›The $1M threshold sits substantially below the $10M level (21% probability), indicating traders believe some material gifts are likely but not large sums
- ›Final resolution requires audited fiscal 2026 financial statements from the Department of Commerce, typically published 6-12 months after fiscal year end
What moved the line
- Sep 17Above $10M↑23pp14→37¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above $100M↓16pp21→5¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Above $100M↑11pp5→16¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Above $1M↑10pp86→96¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above $1M↓7pp93→86¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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