Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 1000000000 for fiscal year 2026
Leader sits at 93% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 80%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $1M
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
80¢
Above $10M
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$2
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above
Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 100000000 for fiscal year 2026?: Above $100M
KXCOMMGIFTS-26SEP30-T100000000
Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 10000000 for fiscal year 2026?: Above $10M
KXCOMMGIFTS-26SEP30-T10000000
Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 1000000 for fiscal year 2026?: Above $1M
KXCOMMGIFTS-26SEP30-T1000000
Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 1000000000 for fiscal year 2026?: Above $1B
KXCOMMGIFTS-26SEP30-T1000000000
Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 2000000000 for fiscal year 2026?: Above $2B
KXCOMMGIFTS-26SEP30-T2000000000
Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 6000000000 for fiscal year 2026?: Above $6B
KXCOMMGIFTS-26SEP30-T6000000000
Will the total amount of Department of Commerce gifts and bequests receipts, including Trump Gold Card Program receipts be above 4000000000 for fiscal year 2026?: Above $4B
KXCOMMGIFTS-26SEP30-T4000000000
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.