Will Ahmad al-Sharaa leave President of Syria before Jan 1, 2027

The yield curve for KXLEADERSOUT exhibits an extremely flat structure across the entire tenor spectrum, with virtually all 34 constituent markets clustering at the 145–146 day horizon. Within this compressed timeframe, probabilities display substantial dispersion rather than a traditional term structure. The 145-day bucket contains only two markets, with YES probabilities at 11.0% and 23.0%, while the dominant 146-day bucket spans 32 markets with probabilities ranging from 1.0% to 44.0%. The cheapest YES probabilities cluster at the extreme low end, with five markets priced at 1.0% (FXKD, JMILARG, MCARCAN, NBUKELSA) and another cluster in the 2.0–3.0% range. Conversely, the highest probabilities appear at BNETISR (44.0%) and PLUXPMNZ (42.0%), suggesting significant heterogeneity in event-specific risk assessment across the constituent markets rather than a coherent term structure. The flatness of this curve indicates that the market has compressed its uncertainty into a narrow resolution window with minimal temporal differentiation. The absence of a traditional upward or downward slope suggests that market participants do not anticipate material probability shifts as the event approaches; instead, the wide cross-sectional spread within the same tenor reflects genuine disagreement about whether specific leaders will exit office by January 27, 2025. The concentration of activity in the 146-day bucket, combined with the extreme dispersion in individual market probabilities, implies that the market views the event outcome as highly dependent on idiosyncratic country-specific factors rather than a systematic macro trend. Liquidity patterns, with most markets showing minimal 24