College sports federalization · Will legislation
College sports federalization is priced at 16¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 14¢ bid, 16¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #10 of 16 inside Will legislation.
Price history
16¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If legislation principally aimed at establishing a federal framework for college sports, including through NIL preemption, antitrust treatment of association rules, athlete-compensation standards, student-athlete protections, or employment-status rules has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
College sports federalization
Rank
#10 of 16
Leader
Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions 81¢
Range
1¢-81¢
Family volume
$849
Identifier
KXBILLS-NIL
Jul 22, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
14¢
Ask
16¢
Spread
2¢
Reported volume
$7K
Family rank
#10 of 16
16 outcomes · Will legislation
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$849
Orderbook snapshot
14 / 16¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If legislation principally aimed at establishing a federal framework for college sports, including through NIL preemption, antitrust treatment of association rules, athlete-compensation standards, student-athlete protections, or employment-status rules has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXBILLS-NIL
Event family
Will legislation.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$849
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions 81¢
Current share
0%
Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions
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kalshi · KXBILLS-NIL
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Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.