Will legislation that establishes a federal critical-minerals reserve to mitigate supply disruptions become law before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 40% probability that Will legislation that establishes a federal critical-minerals reserve to mitigate supply disruptions become law befor.... This contract trades at 40¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 45¢ price reflects moderate conviction that critical-minerals reserve legislation will pass, though the asymmetric implied yields (211% for Yes vs.
Analysis
The 45¢ price reflects moderate conviction that critical-minerals reserve legislation will pass, though the asymmetric implied yields (211% for Yes vs. 94% for No) suggest the market is pricing in meaningful tail risk of failure despite recent downward price movement from 44¢ to 40¢ over seven days. Liquidity is thin at $2,639 open interest with only $102 in 24-hour volume, creating potential execution challenges, while the elevated realized volatility of 308% and vol ratio of 2.11 indicate significant uncertainty around legislative timing with 260 days to resolution. The neutral regime and low cliff risk score (2) suggest no imminent catalyst, though the 0.4 info arrivals per hour indicate steady market attention to policy developments.
Resolution rules
If legislation that establishes a federal critical-minerals reserve to mitigate supply disruptions has become law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBILLS-MIN yes 100