Critical-minerals stockpile · Will legislation
Critical-minerals stockpile is priced at 20¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 20¢ bid, 21¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 16 inside Will legislation.
Price history
20¢ current
Contract brief
If legislation that establishes a federal critical-minerals reserve to mitigate supply disruptions has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Critical-minerals stockpile
Rank
#6 of 16
Leader
Export-control chip security 25¢
Range
1¢-25¢
Family volume
$868
Identifier
KXBILLS-MIN
Jul 23, 2026, 10:38 AM UTC · 1h ago
Implied probability
Bid
20¢
Ask
21¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$14K
Family rank
#6 of 16
16 outcomes · Will legislation
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$868
Orderbook snapshot
20 / 21¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If legislation that establishes a federal critical-minerals reserve to mitigate supply disruptions has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXBILLS-MIN
Event family
Will legislation.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$868
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Export-control chip security 25¢
Current share
0%
Export-control chip security
kalshi · KXBILLS-CHIP
AI-chip export licensing
kalshi · KXBILLS-AIO
DEFIANCE Act
kalshi · KXBILLS-DEFY
Jewish American security
kalshi · KXBILLS-JSEC
ROTOR Act
kalshi · KXBILLS-ROTOR
Critical-minerals stockpile
kalshi · KXBILLS-MIN
FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)
kalshi · KXBILLS-FISA
College sports federalization
kalshi · KXBILLS-NIL
Data center utility cost protection
kalshi · KXBILLS-DATA
Film/TV production expensing
kalshi · KXBILLS-TV
$2.50 Coin
kalshi · KXBILLS-250C
Trump Airport
kalshi · KXBILLS-AIRP
Credit-card routing competition
kalshi · KXBILLS-CCR
Smithsonian Women’s History Museum
kalshi · KXBILLS-SMITH
SHOWER Act
kalshi · KXBILLS-SHOW
SELF DRIVE Act
kalshi · KXBILLS-DRIVE
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 20% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.