Will legislation that would require Treasury to mint and issue $2.50 coins to mark America’s 250th anniversary become law before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Will legislation that would require Treasury to mint and issue $2.50 coins to mark America’s 250th anniversary become.... This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extremely asymmetric risk-reward dynamics, with a 1137% implied yield on the Yes side contrasting sharply against just 17.4% for No, though the 16¢ price reflects genuine skepticism about passage.
Analysis
This market shows extremely asymmetric risk-reward dynamics, with a 1137% implied yield on the Yes side contrasting sharply against just 17.4% for No, though the 16¢ price reflects genuine skepticism about passage. The $2,483 open interest and zero 24-hour volume suggest thin liquidity, making the 5¢ spread potentially misleading as a true execution cost. With 260 days to expiry and a moderate cliff risk index of 8, the market is pricing in a low but non-trivial chance that commemorative coin legislation could advance through Congress during the 250th anniversary window, though the skewed yield structure indicates most participants expect this niche proposal to stall.
Resolution rules
If legislation that would require Treasury to mint and issue $2.50 coins to mark America’s 250th anniversary has become law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBILLS-250C yes 100