Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for two years become law before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that Will legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for two years become law before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing in only a 23% probability of FISA Section 702 reauthorization passing by year-end 2026, despite 258 days remaining and an extraordinarily high Yes-side implied yield of 474%, suggesting significant mispricing or genuine legislative skepticism.
Analysis
The market is pricing in only a 23% probability of FISA Section 702 reauthorization passing by year-end 2026, despite 258 days remaining and an extraordinarily high Yes-side implied yield of 474%, suggesting significant mispricing or genuine legislative skepticism. The 7-day price surge from 12¢ to 23¢ (92% increase) combined with elevated realized volatility of 26,739% and a high info arrival rate of 2.1/hour indicates active repricing around recent news developments, likely related to ongoing congressional debates over surveillance reform. The 6¢ spread and modest $22.5k open interest reflect thin liquidity typical of niche political markets, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions.
Resolution rules
If legislation that reauthorizes FISA Title VII, including Section 702, for two years has become law before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
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Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBILLS-FISA yes 100