SELF DRIVE Act · Will legislation
SELF DRIVE Act is priced at 2¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 1¢ bid, 2¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #16 of 16 inside Will legislation.
Price history
2¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
If legislation that preempts state and local autonomous vehicle laws by establishing a unified federal regulatory framework for the testing and deployment of vehicles equipped with automated driving systems has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
SELF DRIVE Act
Rank
#16 of 16
Leader
Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions 81¢
Range
1¢-81¢
Family volume
$4K
Identifier
KXBILLS-DRIVE
Jul 23, 2026, 10:55 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
1¢
Ask
2¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$24K
Family rank
#16 of 16
16 outcomes · Will legislation
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Family volume
$4K
Orderbook snapshot
1 / 2¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If legislation that preempts state and local autonomous vehicle laws by establishing a unified federal regulatory framework for the testing and deployment of vehicles equipped with automated driving systems has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
Identifier
KXBILLS-DRIVE
Event family
Will legislation.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$4K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions 81¢
Current share
0%
Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions
kalshi · KXBILLS-BBAC
ADS-B revenue-use restriction
kalshi · KXBILLS-ADSB
Export-control chip security
kalshi · KXBILLS-CHIP
AI-chip export licensing
kalshi · KXBILLS-AIO
Jewish American security
kalshi · KXBILLS-JSEC
Critical-minerals stockpile
kalshi · KXBILLS-MIN
DEFIANCE Act
kalshi · KXBILLS-DEFY
College sports federalization
kalshi · KXBILLS-NIL
Railway safety bill
kalshi · KXBILLS-26MAY-RAIL
Insulin cost cap
kalshi · KXBILLS-26JUN-INSULIN
JAWBONE Act
kalshi · KXBILLS-26-JAWB
$2.50 Coin
kalshi · KXBILLS-250C
White House ballroom funding
kalshi · KXBILLS-BALL
Fort Bragg → Fort Liberty
kalshi · KXBILLS-BRAGG
Trump Airport
kalshi · KXBILLS-AIRP
SELF DRIVE Act
kalshi · KXBILLS-DRIVE
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.432
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
Prediction market edge detection: a practical framework for finding mispriced contracts
A practical framework for measuring edge in prediction markets. Define thesis-implied probability, calculate executable edge after spreads, and filter real trades from noise.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
US Recession 2025? What 1% Prediction Market Odds Get Right—and Wrong—About the Cycle
Prediction markets put 2025 US recession odds near 1%, while yield curves, economic indicators, and institutional forecasts point to much higher risk. This deep dive compares market pricing to historical base rates, Federal Reserve policy, and forecasting models to see if investors are underpricing recession risk.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 2% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.