2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
Leader sits at 96% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 4%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
2nd hottest
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
4¢
3rd hottest
Spread
92pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
Jun 10, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record
Analysis
This market assesses whether May 2026 will rank as the second-hottest May on instrumental temperature records, reflecting expectations that recent warming trends continue but don't reach record extremes. The 90% probability for second-hottest reflects near-certainty that May 2026 will finish in the top tier of May temperatures historically, with only small probability of either record-breaking heat or a cooler-than-expected month. The outcome depends on whether La Niña or El Niño conditions persist, regional weather patterns over the coming weeks, and how much seasonal warming materializes. The resolution will occur when meteorological organizations release official May 2026 temperature data, typically in early June, comparing global mean temperatures against the satellite and instrumental record dating to 1979 or longer historical periods depending on the dataset used.
- ›Current global temperature anomalies and whether recent warming acceleration persists through May 2026
- ›Strength and persistence of ocean circulation patterns (ENSO phase) affecting tropical heat distribution
- ›Northern hemisphere late spring weather patterns, particularly high-latitude warming contributions to global averages
- ›Comparison baseline: May 2025 and recent May rankings to establish what constitutes first, second, or third-hottest
- ›Official temperature dataset release and reconciliation across major agencies (NASA GISS, NOAA, Copernicus, UAH) in early June 2026
Recently closed in climate
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 3last 68% · 6d
- Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on recordlast 85% · 6d
- 2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?: 4th or lowerlast 97% · 44d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (96% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In climate
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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