Will the maximum temperature be <65° on Apr 21, 2026

Analysis

This question asks whether the maximum temperature in a specific location will reach 88–89°F on June 5, 2026. The 41% probability reflects traders' assessment that this narrow temperature band is more likely than not to occur, with most alternative outcomes scattered across neighboring ranges (86–87°F at 26%, 90–91°F at 16%). Temperature outcomes depend on seasonal weather patterns, atmospheric conditions, and local geography. The resolution will occur on the specified date when the daily maximum is recorded and compared against the contract bounds. Traders are pricing in a warm but not extreme day, with the largest share of probability mass in the 86–91°F zone. Uncertainty remains significant because weather forecasts become less precise beyond 10–14 days, and small shifts in pressure systems or cloud cover can move daily highs by several degrees.

• ›The modal outcome (88–89°F) commands only 41% of total probability, meaning 59% of traders favor temperatures outside this band
• ›The five contracts together cover a 7-degree range from below 86°F to 92–93°F, with the bulk of volume in the 86–91°F cluster
• ›No single alternative outcome exceeds 30%, indicating genuine disagreement about the likely maximum rather than consensus with scattered bets
• ›Historical climate data and seasonal norms for the location on June 5 will anchor baseline expectations
• ›Trading volume is concentrated in the top two contracts ($409 and $336 per 24h), suggesting active price discovery for the most probable outcomes

Recently closed in climate

• Will Germany Ifo business climate for April 2026 be above 84.2last 89% · 1d
• Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 3last 68% · 7d
• Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on recordlast 85% · 7d
• 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?: 3rd hottestlast 96% · 14d
• 2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?: 4th or lowerlast 97% · 44d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds