Will the max temperature in Miami be above 75 degrees on Jul 4, 2026
Leader sits at 96% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Washington DC
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
94¢
Chicago
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
Jul 5, 2026
10 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the max temperature
Will the max temperature in Washington DC be above 75 degrees on Jul 4, 2026?: Washington DC
KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-DC
Will the max temperature in Philadelphia be above 75 degrees on Jul 4, 2026?: Philadelphia
KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-PHIL
Will the max temperature in Los Angeles be above 75 degrees on Jul 4, 2026?: Los Angeles
KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-LAX
Will the max temperature in Minneapolis be above 75 degrees on Jul 4, 2026?: Minneapolis
KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-MIN
Will the max temperature in New York City be above 75 degrees on Jul 4, 2026?: New York City
KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-NYC
Will the max temperature in San Francisco be above 75 degrees on Jul 4, 2026?: San Francisco
KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-SFO
Will the max temperature in Denver be above 75 degrees on Jul 4, 2026?: Denver
KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-DEN
Will the max temperature in Boston be above 75 degrees on Jul 4, 2026?: Boston
KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-BOS
Will the max temperature in Seattle be above 75 degrees on Jul 4, 2026?: Seattle
KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-SEA
Will the max temperature in Chicago be above 75 degrees on Jul 4, 2026?: Chicago
KXHOLIDAYTMAX-26070475-CHI
Analysis
This contract estimates a 97% chance that Miami's maximum temperature will exceed 75°F on July 4, 2026. The high probability reflects historical weather patterns for South Florida in early July, when temperatures routinely exceed this threshold. Current market pricing suggests traders view this outcome as nearly certain, with comparable contracts for other major U.S. cities showing similarly high probabilities for southern locations (New Orleans and Oklahoma City both at 97%) and lower probabilities for northern cities like New York (86%) and Los Angeles (30%). The main factors affecting this estimate are typical summer heat patterns in South Florida and any exceptional cooling systems that develop in early July. Resolution occurs on July 4, 2026, when the National Weather Service reports Miami's official daily maximum temperature.
- ›Miami's July average high temperature is approximately 90°F, making 75°F well below historical norms for the date
- ›Market prices for New Orleans and Oklahoma City are also priced at 97%, suggesting consistency in regional heat expectations across southern U.S. locations
- ›Northern cities like New York (86%) and Los Angeles (30%) show dramatically lower probabilities, indicating geographic variation drives pricing rather than uniform seasonal bias
- ›The contract resolves based on National Weather Service official maximum temperature readings, eliminating ambiguity in measurement methodology
- ›Nine days of lead time before resolution date allows weather models to substantially refine forecasts, potentially shifting probabilities if anomalous cooling patterns emerge
What moved the line
- Jun 25Boston↓49pp76→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Los Angeles↓41pp67→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Minneapolis↑19pp73→92¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Denver↑16pp73→89¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Chicago↑15pp63→78¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in climate
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- 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?: 3rd hottestlast 96% · 14d
- 2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?: 4th or lowerlast 97% · 44d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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