Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 35%
Leader sits at 84% across 16 bound outcomes, runner-up at 83%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Reform UK, ≥5%
Outcomes
16
winner-take-all
Runner-up
83¢
Reform UK, ≥10%
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Jul 8, 2027
361 days
Venue
Kalshi
16 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 5%?: Reform UK, ≥5%
KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P52
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 60%?: Reform UK, ≥60%
KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P80
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 30%?: Reform UK, ≥30%
KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P65
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 10%?: Reform UK, ≥10%
KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P55
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 35%?: Reform UK, ≥35%
KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P67
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 40%?: Reform UK, ≥40%
KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P70
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 20%?: Reform UK, ≥20%
KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P60
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 80%?: Reform UK, ≥80%
KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P90
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 75%?: Reform UK, ≥75%
KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P87
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 70%?: Reform UK, ≥70%
KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P85
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 65%?: Reform UK, ≥65%
KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P82
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 55%?: Reform UK, ≥55%
KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P77
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 50%?: Reform UK, ≥50%
KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P75
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 45%?: Reform UK, ≥45%
KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P72
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 25%?: Reform UK, ≥25%
KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P62
Will the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election be above 15%?: Reform UK, ≥15%
KXCLACTONBYMOV-CLACTONBYELECTION26SEP01-RUK-P57
Analysis
This contract estimates a 71% probability that Reform UK will win the 2026 Clacton by-election by more than 35 percentage points. The market reflects strong confidence in Reform's dominance in the constituency, though there is material uncertainty about whether the victory margin will exceed 35% versus a smaller but still decisive margin. Key drivers include Reform's current polling strength in Clacton, the fragmentation of opposition votes, and local candidate factors. The resolution depends on actual vote tallies when the by-election occurs; margins could narrow if opposition parties coordinate or if turnout patterns differ from expectations. The price gradient across the contract tier suggests traders see roughly 25-30 point margins as plausible, with outcomes above 35 points considered likely but not certain.
- ›Current polling and historical voting patterns in Clacton relative to Reform's national performance
- ›Degree of tactical voting coordination or vote-splitting among Labour, Conservative, and Liberal Democrat voters
- ›Local candidate quality, campaign intensity, and ground organization efforts by all competing parties
- ›Voter turnout rate and demographic composition of the by-election electorate compared to recent general elections
- ›Timing of the by-election and whether it occurs during periods of higher or lower national political salience
What moved the line
- Jul 8Reform UK, ≥40%↑23pp46→69¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 8Reform UK, ≥35%↑21pp57→78¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 8Reform UK, ≥30%↑20pp62→82¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 8Reform UK, ≥60%↑15pp28→43¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 8Reform UK, ≥25%↑15pp69→84¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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