ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (Jun 19, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.

1 source contract·Polymarket 1·closed just now·Closes Dec 31, 2026 · 195d

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 91% across 1 Polymarket contracts.

Implied probability

91%

0%50%100%

Kalshi

—

not bound

Polymarket

91%

1 contract

Cross-venue gap

—

single venue

24h move

—

no pin

24h volume

$2K

1 contracts

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

195 days

Open top contract Read answer china

Source contractsPriceVolume

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?91¢$2K

30-day trend

Aggregate of 1 contract · 9d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027

1 contract$2K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?

0xd7e906…32ec

91¢+1pp$2KP→

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Chinese President Xi Jinping will make an official visit to the United States sometime before the end of 2026. The 92% level suggests traders view a visit as highly likely within this timeframe. The main drivers include ongoing US-China diplomatic engagement, the typical cadence of high-level bilateral visits, and Xi's recent pattern of international travel. Factors that could move this probability include deterioration in US-China relations, scheduling conflicts with domestic priorities, or diplomatic incidents. The resolution hinges on whether an official state visit or summit occurs before December 31, 2026. With roughly 7 months remaining, scheduled diplomatic engagements or official announcements from either government would be the clearest indicators of movement toward such a visit.

›Xi Jinping has not visited the United States since 2015, making any visit notable for relationship signaling
›US-China bilateral relations status as of mid-2026 would determine political willingness on both sides
›Official announcements of state visits or summits are typically scheduled months in advance
›Domestic political calendars in both countries during the remainder of 2026 could affect diplomatic availability
›Trade negotiations, technology disputes, or military tensions could accelerate or eliminate visit prospects

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 1 contract (91% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

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