Will Swiped win TV Movie at the Emmy Awards
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
20%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$31
6 contracts
Closes
Sep 14, 2027
378 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Tom Clancy's Jack Ryan: Ghost War win Outstanding Movie at the Emmy Awards
Cluster 2
Will Remarkably Bright Creatures win Outstanding Movie at the Emmy Awards
Cluster 3
Will Tie win Outstanding Movie at the Emmy Awards
Will Tie win Outstanding Movie at the Emmy Awards?: Tie
KXEMMYTVMOVIE-26SEP14-TIE
Cluster 4
Will Heads Of State win Outstanding Movie at the Emmy Awards
Will Heads Of State win Outstanding Movie at the Emmy Awards?: Heads Of State
KXEMMYTVMOVIE-26SEP14-HEA
Cluster 5
Will Miss You, Love You win Outstanding Movie at the Emmy Awards
Will Miss You, Love You win Outstanding Movie at the Emmy Awards?: Miss You, Love You
KXEMMYTVMOVIE-26SEP14-MIS
Cluster 6
Will People We Meet On Vacation win Outstanding Movie at the Emmy Awards
Analysis
This represents the estimated chance that Swiped will win the Emmy Award for Outstanding Television Movie at the 2026 Emmy Awards ceremony. The 14% probability reflects a competitive field where Remarkably Bright Creatures is the current market favorite at 91%, suggesting Swiped is viewed as a solid contender but not among the top candidates. The probability would move based on critical reception, industry buzz, and voting patterns from Emmy voters who determine the winner. The Emmy Awards ceremony in September 2026 will be the final resolution point. Until then, factors like nomination confirmation, campaign visibility, and comparative quality assessments by industry voters will drive any probability shifts. The low trading volume on most contracts suggests limited market confidence in predicting the outcome with certainty.
- ›Remarkably Bright Creatures maintains 91 cents on the market, indicating it is the consensus favorite, leaving Swiped competing for remaining votes among other contenders
- ›Swiped's 14% probability ranks fourth or fifth among the tracked television movie candidates, based on relative contract pricing
- ›Emmy voting outcomes depend on Academy member preferences which can shift based on campaign efforts, screenings, and industry discussions between now and September 2026
- ›Trading volume across television movie contracts is relatively light, suggesting limited market participation and potentially higher uncertainty in price discovery
- ›The final Emmy Awards ceremony is scheduled for September 2026, providing the resolution date for this market
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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