Will Florida Governor winner be Democratic party and Florida Senate winner be Democratic party
Leader sits at 76% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 10%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody win
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
10¢
David Jolly and Ashley Moody
Spread
66pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
387 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Florida Governor winner
Will Florida Governor winner be Republican party and Florida Senate winner be Republican party?: Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody win
KXFLSENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-REPREP
Will Florida Governor winner be Democratic party and Florida Senate winner be Democratic party?: David Jolly and Angie Nixon win
KXFLSENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-DEMDEM
Will Florida Governor winner be Democratic party and Florida Senate winner be Republican party?: David Jolly and Ashley Moody win
KXFLSENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-DEMREP
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Florida voters will elect Democratic candidates for both governor and Senate in 2026, currently priced at 8 cents (8% likelihood). The dominant market view, at 72%, favors Republican victories in both races, driven by Florida's rightward electoral shift in recent cycles and Republican registration advantages. Democratic prospects depend heavily on candidate quality, turnout dynamics, and whether national political conditions favor their party by election day. The outcome will be determined on election day in November 2026, with early voting and absentee ballot patterns in the weeks prior potentially signaling final margins. Key conditions that would strengthen Democratic odds include significant economic headwinds, shifts in independent voter preference, or strong turnout among younger and minority voters in urban-leaning counties.
- ›Florida's voter registration shows Republican advantage of approximately 140,000 registered Republicans over Democrats as of mid-2024
- ›Republican candidates won Florida's 2022 gubernatorial race by 3.7 points and 2024 presidential race by 3.0 points
- ›Democratic performance in 2026 depends on candidate recruitment quality and whether national political environment creates favorable tailwinds
- ›Early voting and mail ballot returns in late October 2026 will provide concrete data on turnout and geographic performance trends before election day
- ›Historically, Florida midterm elections in off-years have shown lower Democratic turnout relative to presidential cycles
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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