Will Sage Steele be the next White House Press Secretary of United States
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$167K
5 contracts
Closes
Jan 21, 2029
883 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary of United States
Cluster 2
Will Margo Martin be the next White House Press Secretary of United States
Will Margo Martin be the next White House Press Secretary of United States?: Margo Martin
KXNEXTPRESSEC-29JAN21-MMAR
Cluster 3
Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary of United States
Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary of United States?: Natalie Harp
KXNEXTPRESSEC-29JAN21-NHAR
Cluster 4
Will Elizabeth Pipko be the next White House Press Secretary of United States
Cluster 5
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary of United States
Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary of United States?: Anna Kelly
KXNEXTPRESSEC-29JAN21-AKEL
Analysis
A 23% probability means roughly one-in-four odds that Sage Steele becomes White House Press Secretary. This assessment reflects her media prominence and prior government communications experience, though the role typically goes to career political operatives or longtime partisan figures. The probability could increase if a future administration explicitly signals interest in appointing her, or decrease if other candidates with stronger political networks gain visibility. The main uncertainty centers on whether any incoming president would prioritize her background in broadcast journalism and sports media as valuable for the role, versus preferring traditional political communication professionals. Resolution depends on when the next White House Press Secretary is actually appointed, which would occur following a change in administration.
- ›Sage Steele's professional background is primarily in broadcast journalism and sports commentary rather than political communications or government press operations
- ›White House Press Secretary appointments historically favor individuals with established relationships within political parties or administration inner circles
- ›No public statements from current or prospective presidential candidates have indicated Steele as a potential Press Secretary candidate
- ›The role requires managing daily press briefings and serving as official spokesperson, functions typically staffed by career political operatives rather than media personalities
- ›Timeline for appointment depends on when a new administration takes office, adding significant uncertainty to the probability estimate
What moved the line
- Aug 20Scott Jennings↑15pp20→35¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Scott Jennings↑9pp35→44¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Scott Jennings↓8pp22→14¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 15Scott Jennings↑7pp15→22¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Anna Kelly↓7pp20→13¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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