Will The Life of a Showgirl win Album of the Year at the Grammys
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$707
8 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
463 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will The Art of Loving win Album of the Year at the Grammys
Will The Art of Loving win Album of the Year at the Grammys?: The Art of Loving
KXGRAMAOTY-69-ART
Cluster 2
Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love win Album of the Year at the Grammys
Cluster 3
Will Lux win Album of the Year at the Grammys
Will Lux win Album of the Year at the Grammys?: Lux
KXGRAMAOTY-69-LUX
Cluster 4
Will Dandelion win Album of the Year at the Grammys
Will Dandelion win Album of the Year at the Grammys?: Dandelion
KXGRAMAOTY-69-DAN
Cluster 5
Will Arirang win Album of the Year at the Grammys
Will Arirang win Album of the Year at the Grammys?: Arirang
KXGRAMAOTY-69-ARI
Cluster 6
Will The Great Divide win Album of the Year at the Grammys
Will The Great Divide win Album of the Year at the Grammys?: The Great Divide
KXGRAMAOTY-69-GRE
Cluster 7
Will ICEMAN win Album of the Year at the Grammys
Will ICEMAN win Album of the Year at the Grammys?: ICEMAN
KXGRAMAOTY-69-ICE
Cluster 8
Will The Life of a Showgirl win Album of the Year at the Grammys
Will The Life of a Showgirl win Album of the Year at the Grammys?: The Life of a Showgirl
KXGRAMAOTY-69-LIF
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that The Life of a Showgirl has a 12% chance of winning Album of the Year at the next Grammy Awards. The market is pricing in competition from several other albums, particularly "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" at 41% and "The Art of Loving" at 11%. The current low probability likely reflects either limited commercial momentum, mixed critical reception, or strong competition from other contenders entering the race. Resolution occurs when the Recording Academy announces the Album of the Year winner at the Grammy Awards ceremony, typically held in early February. Until then, factors like chart performance, streaming numbers, critical accolades, and nomination announcements will influence market sentiment.
- ›Competing albums command higher market prices, with 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' trading at 41 cents versus 12 cents for this title
- ›Grammy Award voting eligibility requires albums released within the eligibility window; confirmation of The Life of a Showgirl's qualification affects viability
- ›The album's streaming performance and chart positioning relative to competitors will influence industry perception and voter sentiment in the months before voting
- ›The nominee announcement serves as a critical checkpoint; if the album fails to secure a Grammy nomination, the probability should approach zero
- ›Artist recognition and prior Grammy history of the performer influences voting patterns, with established artists typically receiving higher probabilities than debuts
What moved the line
- Sep 18The Art of Loving↓15pp25→10¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Lux↑9pp14→23¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17The Art of Loving↓4pp29→25¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 23The Art of Loving↑4pp7→11¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19The Art of Loving↓3pp10→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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