Will The Life of a Showgirl win Album of the Year at the Grammys
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
7 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
509 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will The Art of Loving win Album of the Year at the Grammys
Will The Art of Loving win Album of the Year at the Grammys?: The Art of Loving
KXGRAMAOTY-69-ART
Cluster 2
Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love win Album of the Year at the Grammys
Cluster 3
Will The Great Divide win Album of the Year at the Grammys
Will The Great Divide win Album of the Year at the Grammys?: The Great Divide
KXGRAMAOTY-69-GRE
Cluster 4
Will ICEMAN win Album of the Year at the Grammys
Will ICEMAN win Album of the Year at the Grammys?: ICEMAN
KXGRAMAOTY-69-ICE
Cluster 5
Will The Life of a Showgirl win Album of the Year at the Grammys
Will The Life of a Showgirl win Album of the Year at the Grammys?: The Life of a Showgirl
KXGRAMAOTY-69-LIF
Cluster 6
Will Lux win Album of the Year at the Grammys
Will Lux win Album of the Year at the Grammys?: Lux
KXGRAMAOTY-69-LUX
Cluster 7
Will Tie win Album of the Year at the Grammys
Will Tie win Album of the Year at the Grammys?: Tie
KXGRAMAOTY-69-TIE
Analysis
This 28% probability reflects market expectations that The Life of a Showgirl will win Album of the Year at the 2027 Grammy Awards. The prediction aggregates three related contracts, with The Life of a Showgirl and you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love trading at similar levels around 31-32 cents, while The Romantics trades lower at 25 cents. The probability is driven by the album's critical reception, commercial performance, and positioning within the Recording Academy's voting patterns. The Grammy Awards voting period occurs in November 2026, with the ceremony scheduled for February 2027. Key drivers of movement would include any major award wins at other ceremonies (like the Grammys' traditional precursors), significant changes in streaming or sales data, and shifts in critical consensus. Resolution depends entirely on the Recording Academy's voting outcomes at the scheduled ceremony date.
- ›The album's performance metrics through Q3 2026, including streaming numbers, sales figures, and chart positions relative to competing albums
- ›Critical reception and major music publication year-end rankings released in late 2026
- ›Awards history: whether the album wins at other major ceremonies (Brit Awards, Rolling Stone Music Awards, etc.) that typically precede the Grammys
- ›The album's eligibility confirmation and category placement by Recording Academy officials
- ›Voting patterns showing any shifts in the three contracts' relative prices, which may indicate changing professional assessments of the album's competitive position
What moved the line
- Aug 5you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love↓5pp41→36¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7The Art of Loving↑3pp1→4¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love↑3pp38→41¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love↑3pp37→40¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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