Will Reform UK finish 2nd in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 49% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$256
2 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
447 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Green Party finish 2nd in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election
Cluster 2
Will Labour Party finish 2nd in the 2026 Holborn and St Pancras by-election
Analysis
This contract estimates a 33% probability that Reform UK will finish in second place in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, implying roughly a one-in-three chance of this outcome. The market currently prices the Green Party as the strong favourite for second place at 75%, with Labour at 19% and Reform UK at 5%, though these odds suggest significant remaining uncertainty about the final vote distribution. The probability reflects expectations about Reform UK's vote share relative to competing parties in a London constituency with historically strong Green and Labour support. Resolution depends on the actual by-election results, which would be determined once voting concludes and ballots are counted. Key factors include Reform UK's polling trajectory in the district, tactical voting patterns among opposition voters, and whether any local issues or candidate profiles shift support away from established parties.
- ›Reform UK's current vote share and trend in the Holborn and St Pancras constituency compared to Green Party and Labour
- ›Turnout patterns in the by-election, particularly whether Reform UK's typical voters participate at higher or lower rates than in general elections
- ›Green Party campaign effectiveness and their historical vote consolidation in London urban constituencies
- ›Whether Labour's second-place finish risks are hedged by opposition voters consolidating around one anti-Conservative alternative
- ›The margin between Reform UK and Labour vote share — the contract requires Reform UK to finish ahead of Labour but behind the first-place party
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (49% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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