Will Kyle Barrett win the 2026 Launceston mayoral election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 35% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
35%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$162
2 contracts
Closes
Oct 27, 2027
380 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Matthew Garwood win the 2026 Launceston mayoral election
Will Matthew Garwood win the 2026 Launceston mayoral election?: Matthew Garwood
KXLAUNCESTONMAYOR-26OCT27-MGAR
Cluster 2
Will Kyle Barrett win the 2026 Launceston mayoral election
Will Kyle Barrett win the 2026 Launceston mayoral election?: Kyle Barrett
KXLAUNCESTONMAYOR-26OCT27-KBAR
Analysis
This represents the current market estimate that Kyle Barrett will be elected mayor of Launceston in 2026, at roughly 1-in-5 odds. Barrett is trading as the second-most-likely candidate behind Matthew Garwood, who is priced at 53 cents. The probability reflects expectations about candidate viability, local political dynamics, and voter preferences in what appears to be a competitive race with at least four credible candidates. Barrett's 21% probability suggests traders view him as a plausible winner but not the frontrunner. Resolution will occur when the 2026 Launceston mayoral election is held and official results are announced, likely providing clarity on whether voters favor Barrett or one of the other candidates like Garwood, Mallett, or Diamond.
- ›Matthew Garwood is currently the implied favorite at 53%, meaning Barrett would need to consolidate non-Garwood support or shift voter preferences to win
- ›The combined probability of all candidates is not constrained to 100%, suggesting these markets may be reflecting different participant pools or assessment timeframes
- ›No recent trading activity on the Barrett contract (zero 24-hour volume) makes it difficult to assess momentum or whether market pricing reflects fresh information
- ›The election date and formal candidate registration deadlines will determine whether additional competitors enter, potentially fragmenting the vote further
- ›Local political factors specific to Launceston—incumbent performance, demographic shifts, or campaign developments—are not reflected in the contract prices and would be primary drivers of probability changes
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (35% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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