Will Corey Seager lead Pro Baseball in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the 2026 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
11 contracts
Closes
Oct 22, 2026
91 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Bobby Witt Jr. lead Pro Baseball in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 2
Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 3
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong lead Pro Baseball in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 4
Will Byron Buxton lead Pro Baseball in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 5
Will Brice Turang lead Pro Baseball in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 6
Will Cody Bellinger lead Pro Baseball in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 7
Will Ceddanne Rafaela lead Pro Baseball in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 8
Will Carlos Rodon lead Pro Baseball in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 9
Will Cristopher Sanchez lead Pro Baseball in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 10
Will Corey Seager lead Pro Baseball in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 11
Will Dansby Swanson lead Pro Baseball in WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for the 2026 regular season
Analysis
This contract predicts a 8% chance that Corey Seager finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with the highest Wins Above Replacement (WAR) among all players. WAR combines offensive and defensive contributions into a single metric, making it broader than single-category leaders like home runs or ERA. The low probability reflects that Seager faces competition from perennial elite performers across multiple positions and specialties. Historical patterns show WAR leaders typically come from among a small group of consistently dominant hitters and pitchers. The market's 8% assessment suggests Seager is viewed as a solid player but not among the consensus top-tier candidates for this award. Resolution will occur after the regular season ends in early October 2026, when official statistics and WAR calculations are finalized.
- ›Seager's age (36 in 2026) and historical injury frequency compared to younger elite competitors
- ›His defensive positioning (shortstop) versus designated hitters or elite pitchers who typically accumulate higher WAR totals
- ›Season-to-date and career WAR trajectory relative to other eligible players through May 2026
- ›Whether Seager maintains 2024-2025 performance levels or experiences age-related decline in 2026
- ›Availability of related contracts for home run or OPS leaders showing market confidence in specific competitors over Seager
What moved the line
- Jul 20Pete Crow-Armstrong↑6pp11→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Bobby Witt Jr.↓4pp16→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Bobby Witt Jr.↓3pp12→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Shohei Ohtani↓3pp52→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Shohei Ohtani↑3pp49→52¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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