Will Jesús Made play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2027
Leader sits at 85% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 85%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Aug 1, 2028
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
85¢
Before Nov 1, 2028
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 1, 2028
859 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Jesús Made play in a game for any team in the MLB before
Will Jesús Made play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXMLBDEBUT-JMADE-26NOV01
Will Jesús Made play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2028?: Before Nov 1, 2028
KXMLBDEBUT-JMADE-28NOV01
Will Jesús Made play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2028?: Before May 1, 2028
KXMLBDEBUT-JMADE-28MAY01
Will Jesús Made play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2028?: Before Aug 1, 2028
KXMLBDEBUT-JMADE-28AUG01
Will Jesús Made play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2027?: Before Nov 1, 2027
KXMLBDEBUT-JMADE-27NOV01
Will Jesús Made play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2027?: Before Aug 1, 2027
KXMLBDEBUT-JMADE-27AUG01
Will Jesús Made play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2027?: Before May 1, 2027
KXMLBDEBUT-JMADE-27MAY01
Analysis
This market reflects a 32% probability that Jesús Made will appear in at least one MLB game before November 1, 2027. The current odds suggest meaningful uncertainty about whether Made will reach MLB within that 18-month window. The probability is driven primarily by his current status and developmental timeline—whether he remains healthy, continues progressing through the minor leagues, and receives a call-up from his organization. A key catalyst will be the start of the 2027 season and how Made's performance and team roster decisions unfold through the spring and early summer months, as this period typically determines promotion timing for prospects nearing MLB readiness.
- ›Made's current organizational affiliation and his position in the minor league depth chart as of May 2026
- ›His injury history and recent playing time, which would directly affect probability of reaching MLB within 18 months
- ›The pace of his statistical progression and whether he meets performance benchmarks that typically precede promotion decisions
- ›The organization's roster needs and trade activity, which could accelerate or delay call-up timing
- ›Spring training performance and early 2027 minor league season results, which historically inform promotion likelihood by mid-year
What moved the line
- Jun 25Before May 1, 2027↓19pp36→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Before May 1, 2027↑18pp9→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Before May 1, 2027↑10pp27→37¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Before Nov 1, 2026↓8pp14→6¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Before Nov 1, 2026↑7pp7→14¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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