Will any Source Agency announce that LeBron James is joining any NBA team after Issuance and before Jul 15, 2026
Leader sits at 97% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 96%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Oct 18, 2026
Outcomes
13
winner-take-all
Runner-up
96¢
Before Sep 27, 2026
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$13K
liquid
Closes
Aug 30, 2026
51 days
Venue
Kalshi
13 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will any Source Agency announce that LeBron James is joining any NBA team after Issuance and before
Will any Source Agency announce that LeBron James is joining any NBA team after Issuance and before Oct 18, 2026: Before Oct 18, 2026
KXNBATEAMANNOUNCE-26LJAMES23-1018
Will any Source Agency announce that LeBron James is joining any NBA team after Issuance and before Jul 11, 2026: Before Jul 11, 2026
KXNBATEAMANNOUNCE-26LJAMES23-711
Will any Source Agency announce that LeBron James is joining any NBA team after Issuance and before Aug 23, 2026: Before Aug 23, 2026
KXNBATEAMANNOUNCE-26LJAMES23-823
Will any Source Agency announce that LeBron James is joining any NBA team after Issuance and before Sep 27, 2026: Before Sep 27, 2026
KXNBATEAMANNOUNCE-26LJAMES23-927
Will any Source Agency announce that LeBron James is joining any NBA team after Issuance and before Aug 30, 2026: Before Aug 30, 2026
KXNBATEAMANNOUNCE-26LJAMES23-830
Will any Source Agency announce that LeBron James is joining any NBA team after Issuance and before Jul 15, 2026: Before Jul 15, 2026
KXNBATEAMANNOUNCE-26LJAMES23-715
Will any Source Agency announce that LeBron James is joining any NBA team after Issuance and before Jul 13, 2026: Before Jul 13, 2026
KXNBATEAMANNOUNCE-26LJAMES23-713
Will any Source Agency announce that LeBron James is joining any NBA team after Issuance and before Jul 17, 2026: Before Jul 17, 2026
KXNBATEAMANNOUNCE-26LJAMES23-717
Will any Source Agency announce that LeBron James is joining any NBA team after Issuance and before Aug 2, 2026: Before Aug 2, 2026
KXNBATEAMANNOUNCE-26LJAMES23-802
Will any Source Agency announce that LeBron James is joining any NBA team after Issuance and before Jul 19, 2026: Before Jul 19, 2026
KXNBATEAMANNOUNCE-26LJAMES23-719
Will any Source Agency announce that LeBron James is joining any NBA team after Issuance and before Aug 16, 2026: Before Aug 16, 2026
KXNBATEAMANNOUNCE-26LJAMES23-816
Will any Source Agency announce that LeBron James is joining any NBA team after Issuance and before Aug 9, 2026: Before Aug 9, 2026
KXNBATEAMANNOUNCE-26LJAMES23-809
Will any Source Agency announce that LeBron James is joining any NBA team after Issuance and before Jul 26, 2026: Before Jul 26, 2026
KXNBATEAMANNOUNCE-26LJAMES23-726
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely high likelihood—97%—that LeBron James's next team will be announced by July 15, 2026. The probability reflects confidence that an official announcement is imminent, given that the NBA offseason is underway and teams typically make roster moves during this window. The market's structure reveals clustering around early July dates (with prices dropping sharply for announcements by July 9 or 11), suggesting traders expect either an announcement within days or uncertainty about timing. Key drivers are the compressed timeline—only seven days from today—and the definition of "Source Agency announcement," which requires official confirmation rather than speculation. The main catalyst will be whether any NBA team, LeBron, or official league communication announces a signing before the July 15 deadline.
- ›NBA free agency negotiation period and the current offseason timeline create concentrated trading activity around early-to-mid July announcement windows
- ›The contract pricing heavily discounts announcements before July 9-11, indicating traders assign meaningful probability to delays beyond one week
- ›'Source Agency' definition means unofficial reports, social media posts, or leaked information do not resolve the contract—only formal announcements count
- ›LeBron's contractual status and team interest as of early July 2026 determines whether active negotiations are occurring
- ›The seven-day window (July 8-15) is relatively short for roster-altering announcements, yet the 97% price suggests traders expect resolution within this timeframe
What moved the line
- Jul 8Before Jul 11, 2026↓7pp34→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9Before Jul 13, 2026↓6pp42→36¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9Before Jul 11, 2026↓5pp27→22¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9Before Jul 15, 2026↓4pp44→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 8Before Jul 17, 2026↓4pp61→57¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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