Will there be extra innings in the Pittsburgh vs St. Louis game originally scheduled for May 19, 2026 at 7:45 PM EDT
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2
1 contracts
Closes
Jul 12, 2026
0 days
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will there be extra innings in the AL vs NL game originally scheduled for Jul 14, 2026 at 8:00 PM EDT
Analysis
This contract settles if the Pittsburgh Pirates versus St. Louis Cardinals game originally scheduled for May 19, 2026 at 7:45 PM EDT goes to extra innings. The 6% probability indicates markets view extra innings as unlikely in this matchup. Extra innings frequency in MLB has historically ranged from 8-10% of all games, though specific team and ballpark characteristics affect likelihood. The current market price suggests slightly below-average odds, potentially reflecting recent performance data, pitching matchup details, or ballpark factors at the relevant stadium. Resolution will occur after the game concludes—whether the contest remains tied after nine innings determines the outcome. The probability could shift based on injury reports, roster transactions, or updated team statistics closer to the scheduled date.
- ›Historical MLB extra innings rate averages 8-10% of games, making 6% approximately 25-40% below baseline
- ›Pittsburgh and St. Louis ballpark dimensions and recent run-scoring environments affect probability of tied scores after regulation
- ›Pitching staff quality and bullpen depth for both teams influence likelihood of extended close contests
- ›Game scheduling context (day vs night, back-to-back games) can impact player fatigue and game competitiveness
- ›The original May 19 date may have been postponed; current June 14 timing suggests verification of actual scheduled game details is necessary
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (8% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In sports
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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