Olivia Rodrigo 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' First Week Album Sales?
Leader sits at 87% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 12%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
450k+
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
12¢
400k-450k
Spread
75pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
Jun 19, 2026
0 days
Venue
Polymarket
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Olivia Rodrigo 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' First Week Album Sales
Analysis
This market estimates the likelihood that Olivia Rodrigo's album 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' will achieve first-week sales between 350,000 and 400,000 copies. At 40%, this outcome leads slightly over the 400k-450k range at 28%, suggesting moderate confidence in mid-to-high performance but meaningful uncertainty about whether sales will exceed 400k. The probability reflects Rodrigo's established commercial track record—her previous albums 'SOUR' and 'GUTS' both debuted with strong sales—against variables including market saturation, streaming competition, and general album sales trends. First-week sales will be determined by Hits Daily Double's official count in the week following the album's wide release, providing a definitive resolution. Key drivers include pre-order momentum, radio/streaming playlist placement, and whether this release sees comparable promotional support to her previous work.
- ›Olivia Rodrigo's two prior studio albums debuted with 300k+ in first-week sales (SOUR: ~313k, GUTS: ~300k), establishing a performance baseline for comparison
- ›Pre-order data and streaming preview metrics (Spotify/Apple Music) from the days before official release will indicate consumer demand trajectory
- ›The 350k-400k range sits directly above her historical baseline, requiring either equivalent or modestly stronger performance than previous releases
- ›Competing major releases in the same chart week could fragment the audience; market share shifts among other albums affect absolute sales totals
- ›Hits Daily Double's final first-week tally, scheduled for release approximately 7-10 days after the album's drop, will definitively resolve whether sales fall into this specific bracket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (87% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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