Olivia Rodrigo 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' First Week Album Sales?
Leader sits at 46% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 37%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
350k-400k
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
37¢
300k-350k
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 19, 2026
41 days
Venue
Polymarket
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Olivia Rodrigo 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' First Week Album Sales
Olivia Rodrigo 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' First Week Album Sales?: 350k-400k
0x1dc0ba…d4ae
Olivia Rodrigo 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' First Week Album Sales?: 200k-250k
0x9dd021…62fd
Olivia Rodrigo 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' First Week Album Sales?: 250k-300k
0xf7d43d…03fe
Olivia Rodrigo 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' First Week Album Sales?: <200k
0xd226c6…7f65
Olivia Rodrigo 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' First Week Album Sales?: 400k-450k
0x7c6e62…039d
Olivia Rodrigo 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' First Week Album Sales?: 300k-350k
0xfce7a3…d4fa
Olivia Rodrigo 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' First Week Album Sales?: 450k+
0xa0de46…11d5
Analysis
This market estimates the likelihood that Olivia Rodrigo's album 'you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love' will achieve first-week sales between 350,000 and 400,000 copies. At 40%, this outcome leads slightly over the 400k-450k range at 28%, suggesting moderate confidence in mid-to-high performance but meaningful uncertainty about whether sales will exceed 400k. The probability reflects Rodrigo's established commercial track record—her previous albums 'SOUR' and 'GUTS' both debuted with strong sales—against variables including market saturation, streaming competition, and general album sales trends. First-week sales will be determined by Hits Daily Double's official count in the week following the album's wide release, providing a definitive resolution. Key drivers include pre-order momentum, radio/streaming playlist placement, and whether this release sees comparable promotional support to her previous work.
- ›Olivia Rodrigo's two prior studio albums debuted with 300k+ in first-week sales (SOUR: ~313k, GUTS: ~300k), establishing a performance baseline for comparison
- ›Pre-order data and streaming preview metrics (Spotify/Apple Music) from the days before official release will indicate consumer demand trajectory
- ›The 350k-400k range sits directly above her historical baseline, requiring either equivalent or modestly stronger performance than previous releases
- ›Competing major releases in the same chart week could fragment the audience; market share shifts among other albums affect absolute sales totals
- ›Hits Daily Double's final first-week tally, scheduled for release approximately 7-10 days after the album's drop, will definitively resolve whether sales fall into this specific bracket
What moved the line
- May 6450k+↓17pp32→15¢ · Polymarket
- May 7450k+↑13pp15→28¢ · Polymarket
- May 8450k+↓13pp28→15¢ · Polymarket
- May 6<200k↓13pp24→11¢ · Polymarket
- May 7<200k↑12pp11→23¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in entertainment
- Top Album on Weekly Top Albums USA on Apr 23, 2026last 95% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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