Who will win the governorship in Alaska
Leader sits at 25% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 21%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Tom Begich
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
21¢
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$255
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
498 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the governorship in Alaska
Who will win the governorship in Alaska?: Tom Begich
KXGOVAK-26-TBEG
Who will win the governorship in Alaska?: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
KXGOVAK-26-JKRE
Who will win the governorship in Alaska?: Treg Taylor
KXGOVAK-26-TTAY
Who will win the governorship in Alaska?: Dave Bronson
KXGOVAK-26-DBRO
Who will win the governorship in Alaska?: Click Bishop
KXGOVAK-26-CBIS
Who will win the governorship in Alaska?: Bernadette Wilson
KXGOVAK-26-BWIL
Who will win the governorship in Alaska?: Bill Walker
KXGOVAK-26-BWAL
Analysis
The current 36% probability indicates that the leading candidate for Alaska's governorship is favored but faces meaningful competition, with a roughly 2-to-1 advantage over the next closest contender at 24%. Alaska's 2026 gubernatorial race remains fluid because the state has a history of competitive elections and split-ticket voting patterns. The primary outcome will likely depend on turnout dynamics, the final composition of candidates after any primary contests, and economic conditions in the state heading into the general election. Major campaign developments, polling shifts, or unexpected candidate exits could substantially move these probabilities. The resolution of this market will depend entirely on the November 2026 general election results.
- ›The leading candidate currently prices at 36% with the second-place option at 24%, indicating a moderately concentrated but non-dominant position with 40% probability assigned to all other outcomes combined
- ›Alaska's relatively small population and history of swing behavior means polling samples may be limited, introducing higher variance in probability estimates compared to larger states
- ›The market reflects early-stage pricing with more than 17 months until the November 2026 general election, suggesting substantial room for candidate emergence, withdrawal, or campaign momentum shifts
- ›Primary election results and candidate consolidation patterns will be critical focal points, as they typically reshape general election dynamics in multi-candidate races
- ›Turnout and demographic changes in Alaska could disproportionately affect outcomes given the state's smaller electoral base and historical sensitivity to participation rates
What moved the line
- Jun 21Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins↑3pp16→19¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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