Who will win the governorship in Alaska
Leader sits at 76% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 21%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
21¢
Bernadette Wilson
Spread
55pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$7K
modest
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
389 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the governorship in Alaska
Analysis
This 30% probability reflects market expectations that Bernadette Wilson will win Alaska's gubernatorial election. The estimate is driven by assessments of candidate name recognition, fundraising capacity, and recent polling data compared to competitors like Tom Begich at 25% and Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 13%. The primary factors pushing this probability up or down would be campaign momentum shifts, debate performance, fundraising reports, and movement in public opinion polls closer to election day. The major catalyst resolving uncertainty will be the November 2026 general election results. Current trading volume is minimal for most contracts, suggesting limited market participation and potential price volatility as the election approaches and more participants engage with these markets.
- ›Bernadette Wilson currently leads the contract pricing at 30 cents, while Tom Begich trails at 25 cents—a 5-point spread reflecting modest differentiation rather than consensus
- ›Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 13 cents has the highest 24-hour trading volume ($140), indicating active price discovery for a third-place candidate
- ›Most contracts show zero 24-hour volume, suggesting thin liquidity and potential for sharp price movements if new information emerges
- ›The six-contract structure distributes probabilities across multiple candidates, with the top three accounting for approximately 68% of implied likelihood
- ›Alaska's gubernatorial election occurs in November 2026, roughly three months away, providing multiple opportunities for campaign developments to shift market expectations
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will Mark Jessop win the 2026 Huon Valley mayoral electionlast 25% · 0d
- Will Sage Steele be the next White House Press Secretary of United Stateslast 11% · 0d
- Will Garth Frizzell win the 2026 Prince George mayoral electionlast 29% · 0d
- Will Rastislav Mochnacký win the 2026 Prešov mayoral electionlast 42% · 0d
- Will Tommy Andrews be the next White House Director of Legislative Affairs before Jan 1, 2027last 23% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (76% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
2026 Midterm Elections: Democrats Heavy Favorites for House, Senate Battle Intensifies
Prediction markets show Democrats with a 90% probability of winning the House in 2026, while Senate control remains a toss-up. Key races in Texas, Ohio, and Michigan are attracting huge volume.
2026 Congressional Control is the Core Political Narrative
The market for the 'Balance of Power' combo contract is the single highest-volume election market, at over 1.15 million. It prices a full Republican government sweep at only 10¢.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.