Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...
Leader sits at 49% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 34%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
December 31
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
34¢
October 31
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$145K
liquid
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
195 days
Venue
Polymarket
3 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by
Analysis
Market participants estimate a 46% probability that Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026. The near-term contract (June 30) trades at 9%, suggesting traders view a truce within the next weeks as unlikely. The December deadline implies that any agreement would require either major battlefield developments shifting negotiating positions, a change in political leadership in one or both countries, or diplomatic intervention reshaping incentives. The core driver of uncertainty is whether military dynamics—territorial control, casualty rates, weapons availability—will produce stalemate conditions that make negotiation attractive to both sides. Key upcoming variables include ammunition production capacity, NATO posture shifts, internal political movements, and whether either side achieves decisive territorial gains over the next six months.
- ›Current territorial front lines and their stability or movement over the next 90 days will indicate whether either side perceives military advantage or stalemate
- ›U.S., EU, and other major power diplomatic signaling—statements on negotiations, sanctions policy, or weapons supply—directly influences both sides' perceived costs of continued conflict
- ›Ukrainian domestic political viability of any ceasefire terms versus Russian demands will constrain what agreements are acceptable to Kyiv
- ›Russian military losses, recruitment capacity, and domestic political pressure will determine Moscow's willingness to negotiate from current positions
- ›Any scheduled major diplomatic summit, peace proposal rollout, or leadership transition announcement before year-end would shift market expectations materially
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Related reading
Russia Advancing on Donbas — Kostyantynivka Capture by June at 62%
Prediction markets price Kostyantynivka capture by June 2026 at 62%, reflecting expectations of sustained Russian Donbas momentum and minimal ceasefire prospects through 2026.
Ukraine Ceasefire Odds Sink: December Target Loses 4 Cents
The probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31 fell 4 cents to 47%, while the 'peace deal before 2027' contract edged up 1 cent to 29%. This divergence suggests traders see a ceasefire as less likely near-term, but are not giving up on a longer-term peace process. Russia's capture of key towns is also being priced.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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