Will Angie Craig be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
8 contracts
Closes
Feb 1, 2027
162 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Angie Craig be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027
Will Angie Craig be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027?: Angie Craig
KXKLOBSEAT-27FEB01-ACRA
Cluster 2
Will Amy Klobuchar be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027
Cluster 3
Will Erin Murphy be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027
Will Erin Murphy be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027?: Erin Murphy
KXKLOBSEAT-27FEB01-EMUR
Cluster 4
Will Keith Ellison be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027
Will Keith Ellison be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027?: Keith Ellison
KXKLOBSEAT-27FEB01-KELL
Cluster 5
Will Kelly Morrison be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027
Cluster 6
Will Melisa López Franzen be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027
Cluster 7
Will No one be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027
Will No one be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027?: No one
KXKLOBSEAT-27FEB01-NOONE
Cluster 8
Will Steve Simon be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027
Will Steve Simon be United States Senator from Minnesota, Class I on Feb 1, 2027?: Steve Simon
KXKLOBSEAT-27FEB01-SSIM
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Angie Craig has a 6% chance of being Minnesota's Class I Senator on February 1, 2027. The 2024 Senate race features multiple viable candidates competing for this seat. Craig's current low probability suggests markets view her as a longshot compared to other Democratic candidates, particularly Kelly Morrison who trades at 3¢. The probability will primarily shift based on primary election dynamics, polling trends, and the November 2024 general election results. The main resolution event is the 2024 Senate election in November, which will determine who holds the seat in early 2027. Market pricing reflects both historical electoral patterns in Minnesota and current candidate viability assessments.
- ›Minnesota Class I Senate seat is currently held by Amy Klobuchar (D); the seat was up for election in 2024 with multiple Democratic primary candidates competing
- ›Kelly Morrison trades at significantly lower prices (3¢) than Craig (7¢), indicating market preference for Morrison as the Democratic nominee
- ›Craig's 6% probability is roughly equivalent to betting against her compared to other candidates or the 'no one' outcome at 9¢
- ›Primary election outcomes and subsequent polling against Republican opponent(s) in the general election will be the primary driver of probability movement
- ›Trading volume on Craig's contract ($137 in 24h) is notably lower than Morrison's ($591), suggesting less market interest or conviction in Craig-specific outcomes
What moved the line
- Aug 17Angie Craig↑29pp14→43¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20No one↑6pp10→16¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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