Will a Russia sanctions bill receive above 300 Yea votes in the House

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract chain measures whether a Russia-focused sanctions bill will pass the House with at least 300 affirmative votes. The 42¢ price on the 300-vote threshold reflects moderate confidence such legislation will advance, though with meaningful uncertainty about whether it will secure a true bipartisan supermajority rather than a narrower partisan majority. Support hinges on the severity of geopolitical developments, the bill's specific provisions, and whether it attracts cooperation across the aisle. The 29-point gap between the 250-vote baseline (71%) and the 300-vote target (42%) suggests traders expect the bill to clear a simple majority but doubt it will reach near-consensus. Key resolution drivers include whether the bill reaches a House floor vote before Congress adjourns, the composition of any measure that advances, and real-time shifts in US-Russia relations or related sanctions debates.

• ›Current bid-ask spreads show lower confidence in 300+ votes (42¢) versus 250+ votes (71¢), indicating traders expect passage above simple majority but well below historical supermajority thresholds
• ›High-volume trading on the 275-vote contract (55¢, $345 24h volume) versus near-zero volume on 325+ and 350+ suggests active disagreement in the 250–300 vote band, the decision threshold
• ›The bill's underlying provisions and any recent Russia-related escalations will likely determine whether Democrats and Republicans align sufficiently to exceed 300 votes
• ›House voting dynamics often reflect party-line splits; breaking 300 votes typically requires substantial cross-party support or near-unanimous participation from both sides
• ›Timing of floor votes and procedural considerations before session end or recess could accelerate or delay resolution and shift trader expectations

What moved the line

• Aug 19Above 325↑8pp19→27¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 20Above 350↑7pp11→18¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 20Above 250↓6pp69→63¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 20Above 300↓4pp45→41¢ · Kalshi
• Aug 21Above 250↑3pp63→66¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds