Will Asia or Oceania (AFC or OFC) win the 2026 Men's World Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−7pp
13h ago
24h volume
$30
4 contracts
Closes
Aug 3, 2026
91 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 Men's World Cup
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 Men's World Cup?: Europe
KXWCCONTINENT-26-EUR
Cluster 2
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 Men's World Cup
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 Men's World Cup?: South America
KXWCCONTINENT-26-SA
Cluster 3
Will Asia or Oceania (AFC or OFC) win the 2026 Men's World Cup
Will Asia or Oceania (AFC or OFC) win the 2026 Men's World Cup?: Asia or Oceania
KXWCCONTINENT-26-ASOC
Cluster 4
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 Men's World Cup
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 Men's World Cup?: North America
KXWCCONTINENT-26-NA
Analysis
This 31% probability indicates market participants estimate roughly a one-in-three chance that a team from Asia or Oceania will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, held in North America. The relatively modest probability reflects historical performance: no AFC or OFC nation has won the tournament in its 96-year history, though Asian teams have progressively improved competitive standing. Market pricing likely reflects both the depth of established football powers in Europe and South America and the demonstrated capability of top AFC teams like Japan, South Korea, and Australia in recent tournaments. The probability will clarify substantially following the group stage matches in November-December 2026, when performance data emerges. Until then, uncertainty remains elevated around whether any AFC or OFC team can sustain tournament-long success against elite competition.
- ›Historical track record: No AFC or OFC nation has won the World Cup; the best AFC finishes are quarterfinal appearances by Japan, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia
- ›Recent AFC tournament strength: Japan reached the Asian Cup final (2023), and South Korea, Australia, and Iran regularly qualify for knockout rounds, suggesting improving competitive depth
- ›Host nation advantage: matches in North America may affect travel and adaptation dynamics for Asian teams differently than previous tournaments
- ›Strength of alternative regions: Europe and South America contain multiple historically dominant teams (France, Argentina, Brazil, Germany, Spain) that typically advance far in tournaments
- ›Group stage composition and draw: AFC/OFC qualification outcome and World Cup group assignments will directly determine knockout stage accessibility
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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