Will NORMAL be the first song performed by any of Madonna, Shakira, or BTS (any member of BTS) during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 14% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
14%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
3 contracts
Closes
Jul 20, 2026
24 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Dai Dai be the first song performed by any of Madonna, Shakira, or BTS (any member of BTS) during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium
Cluster 2
Will SWIM be the first song performed by any of Madonna, Shakira, or BTS (any member of BTS) during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium
Cluster 3
Will TQG be the first song performed by any of Madonna, Shakira, or BTS (any member of BTS) during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Final Halftime Show scheduled for July 19, 2026 at New York New Jersey Stadium
Analysis
This contract asks whether 'NORMAL' will be the first song performed during the FIFA World Cup 2026 Final Halftime Show on July 19, 2026, by Madonna, Shakira, or any BTS member. The 4% probability reflects that this specific track is one song among dozens in these artists' catalogs, making it an unlikely opening choice. The probability depends on which artist(s) perform, their setlist decisions, and whether 'NORMAL' fits their performance strategy. Most halftime shows open with high-energy anthems or signature hits rather than deeper cuts. Resolution occurs immediately when the halftime performance takes place on July 19, 2026. Currently, contract volume is minimal ($4 in 24-hour trading), suggesting limited market interest in this specific outcome compared to other opening-song possibilities.
- ›'NORMAL' is not a major chart hit or signature song for Madonna, Shakira, or BTS, making it an atypical halftime show opener
- ›Halftime shows typically open with recognizable anthems or fan favorites rather than album tracks, statistically reducing the likelihood of this song being first
- ›The identity of performers and their final setlist remain unconfirmed as of June 2026, creating fundamental uncertainty about available song choices
- ›Comparable song-opening contracts trade at 3-8 cents, with higher volumes on songs like 'Zoo' (8 cents), suggesting market consensus favors other tracks
- ›The July 19 performance date is the only resolution event; no prior setlist announcements or performance details would reduce uncertainty before then
What moved the line
- Jun 21Dai Dai↑24pp2→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22SWIM↑15pp3→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23SWIM↓12pp18→6¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Dai Dai↑3pp26→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Dai Dai↑3pp28→31¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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