Will at least 11 teams from Europe reach the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Leader sits at 85% across 16 bound outcomes, runner-up at 73%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
1+ teams
Outcomes
16
winner-take-all
Runner-up
73¢
14+ teams
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Jul 5, 2026
10 days
Venue
Kalshi
16 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will at least
Will at least 14 teams from Europe reach the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 14+ teams
KXWCREGIONKO-26EUR-14
Will at least 2 teams from an island nation reach the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 2+ teams
KXWCREGIONKO-26ISLAND-2
Will at least 5 teams from Africa reach the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 5+ teams
KXWCREGIONKO-26AFR-5
Will at least 1 team from an island nation reach the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 1+ teams
KXWCREGIONKO-26ISLAND-1
Will at least 4 teams from Africa reach the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 4+ teams
KXWCREGIONKO-26AFR-4
Will at least 1 team making their World Cup debut reach the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 1+ teams
KXWCREGIONKO-26DEBUT-1
Will at least 6 teams from Africa reach the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 6+ teams
KXWCREGIONKO-26AFR-6
Will at least 2 teams from Asia or Oceania reach the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 2+ teams
KXWCREGIONKO-26ASOC-2
Will at least 3 teams from an island nation reach the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 3+ teams
KXWCREGIONKO-26ISLAND-3
Will at least 5 teams from South America reach the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 5+ teams
KXWCREGIONKO-26SA-5
Will at least 7 teams from Africa reach the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 7+ teams
KXWCREGIONKO-26AFR-7
Will at least 2 teams from Africa reach the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 2+ teams
KXWCREGIONKO-26AFR-2
Will at least 1 team from Africa reach the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 1+ teams
KXWCREGIONKO-26AFR-1
Will at least 11 teams from Europe reach the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 11+ teams
KXWCREGIONKO-26EUR-11
Will at least 1 team from Asia or Oceania reach the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 1+ teams
KXWCREGIONKO-26ASOC-1
Will at least 13 teams from Europe reach the knockout stage of the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: 13+ teams
KXWCREGIONKO-26EUR-13
Analysis
This prediction asks whether Europe will have at least 11 of its teams advance past the group stage of the 2026 World Cup, currently estimated at 65% probability. Europe traditionally dominates World Cup knockout stages, with 13 European teams reaching the Round of 16 in 2022. The 2026 tournament expands to 48 teams, which increases spots available but also dilutes competition quality. The main drivers are the strength of European squads heading into 2026, the draw allocation affecting European groups, and performance consistency from traditional powerhouses like France, Germany, Spain, and England. The tournament itself begins in June 2026, making upcoming qualification matches and pre-tournament friendlies critical indicators of current form. Early World Cup results in June 2026 will definitively resolve this question.
- ›Europe had 13 teams in Round of 16 in 2022; the expanded 48-team format creates more knockout spots but also admits lower-ranked teams
- ›Traditional European powers (France, Germany, Spain, England, Belgium, Netherlands, Italy) collectively advanced 9-10 teams in 2022, making 11 total require strong secondary nations like Portugal, Switzerland, or Austria performing well
- ›The group stage draw in late 2025 will determine which European teams face each other and non-European competition, directly affecting knockout qualification rates
- ›European teams' performance in 2025-2026 qualifiers and friendlies will indicate form going into the tournament
- ›2026 group stage matches begin in June 2026 and conclude by early July, providing the decisive data point for this resolution
What moved the line
- Jun 241+ teams↓71pp75→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 242+ teams↓64pp69→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2411+ teams↓57pp69→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 245+ teams↓55pp69→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 244+ teams↓54pp67→13¢ · Kalshi
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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