Will Lionel Messi score the most goals for Argentina in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 44% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
44%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
11 contracts
Closes
Jul 27, 2026
30 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Baris Yilmaz score the most goals for Turkey in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 2
Will Arda Guler score the most goals for Turkey in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 3
Will Hasan Al Haydos score the most goals for Qatar in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 4
Will Folarin Balogun score the most goals for USA in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 5
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score the most goals for Portugal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 6
Will Julian Quinones score the most goals for Mexico in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 7
Will John McGinn score the most goals for Scotland in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 8
Will Raul Jimenez score the most goals for Mexico in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 9
Will Lionel Messi score the most goals for Argentina in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 10
Will Kai Havertz score the most goals for Germany in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 11
Will No Goalscorer score the most goals for Scotland in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Analysis
This market asks whether Messi will be Argentina's leading scorer at the 2026 World Cup. The 26% probability reflects that while Messi remains a significant player, other factors create substantial uncertainty. At 39-40 years old during the tournament, Messi's physical capacity and playing time compared to younger Argentine strikers like Julián Álvarez and Lautaro Martínez will be critical. Argentina's squad depth and tactical choices will partly determine whether Messi receives sufficient opportunities to lead the team in goals. The tournament itself begins in June 2026, which will definitively resolve the outcome. Key variables include Messi's match fitness, his role in Argentina's lineup, and how many goals younger strikers accumulate relative to him.
- ›Messi's age (39-40 during tournament) and historical scoring patterns in World Cups relative to his club performance
- ›Playing time allocation: whether Argentina's coach favors Messi as a regular starter versus a rotation or substitute player
- ›Goal-scoring competition from younger Argentine forwards, particularly Álvarez and Martínez, who may carry more of the scoring load
- ›Argentina's overall tournament success and number of matches played, which affects cumulative scoring opportunities
- ›Messi's current fitness and performance metrics in the 12 months leading up to the June 2026 tournament
What moved the line
- Jun 25Hasan Al Haydos↓98pp99→1¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25Baris Yilmaz↑76pp1→77¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20John McGinn↑48pp13→61¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25John McGinn↓44pp52→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Raul Jimenez↓23pp40→17¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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