2026 Election Markets: Donalds Leads FL GOP, House Control Favors Democrats
2026 election markets are active, with Florida's GOP gubernatorial primary heavily favoring Byron Donalds. Michigan's Senate primary has Abdul El-Sayed leading. House control is likely Democratic, while Senate control is a toss-up. The balance of power combos offer granular exposure.
Key takeaways
- 01
2026 election markets are active, with Florida's GOP gubernatorial primary heavily favoring Byron Donalds.
- 02
Michigan's Senate primary has Abdul El-Sayed leading.
- 03
House control is likely Democratic, while Senate control is a toss-up.
Full analysis
The 2026 midterm elections are generating intense activity, especially in the Florida gubernatorial race. Byron Donalds is the heavy favorite for the Republican nomination (KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD, 97¢), while James Fishback is a distant second (3¢). The Fishback vote share markets (KXVOTEPRIMARY) show a 95% chance he gets at least 1% of the vote, but only 18% for 20%. In the Michigan Senate race, Abdul El-Sayed leads the Democratic primary (KXSENATEMID-26-AELS, 70¢) over Haley Stevens (30¢). The Ohio gubernatorial race is a toss-up: GOP (50¢) vs Dem (49¢) on GOVPARTYOH. House control is heavily Democratic-favored: CONTROLH-2026-D at 83¢, while Senate control is closer: CONTROLS-2026-R at 56¢. The balance of power combo markets (KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO) show a 43% chance of Democratic sweep, 38% Dem House/Rep Senate, 16% Republican sweep, and 1% Rep House/Dem Senate. These markets are highly liquid and reflect the evolving political landscape. Traders should monitor upcoming primaries and endorsements.
Related markets
Source markets at a glance
The contracts behind this dispatch — current price + 24h volume. Click any card for live orderbook data.
Zoom out
sf query "2026 election"