2026 Midterm Elections: High-Volume Action on House and Senate Control
Democrats favored to win House at 82¢ (KXCONTROLH) while Senate is a toss-up. Key Senate races in Texas (55¢ R), Nebraska (28¢ independent), and Maine (34¢ R) see heavy trading. Primary markets are also active with high-volume contracts on Florida governor, Wisconsin governor, and Michigan Senate primaries.
Cross-market probability snapshot
Will Democrats win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party
82¢Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026?: Republican Party
55¢Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?: Ken Paxton
57¢Will Dan Osborn (as an independent)s win the Senate race in Nebraska?: Dan Osborn
30¢Will Republicans win the Senate race in Maine?: Republican party
35¢Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Governor in Florida?: Byron Donalds
97¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
Democrats favored to win House at 82¢ (KXCONTROLH) while Senate is a toss-up.
- 02
Key Senate races in Texas (55¢ R), Nebraska (28¢ independent), and Maine (34¢ R) see heavy trading.
- 03
Primary markets are also active with high-volume contracts on Florida governor, Wisconsin governor, and Michigan Senate primaries.
Full analysis
The 2026 midterm election markets are the most active non-sports category on Kalshi. House control is heavily tilted toward Democrats (82¢, KXCONTROLH-2026-D) with 97,630 volume. Senate control is more competitive: Republicans lead at 55¢ (KXCONTROLS-2026-R) but Democrats are close at 44¢. Individual Senate races show tight contests: Texas (KXSENATETX-26-R at 55¢, volume 242k), Nebraska independent Dan Osborn at 28¢ (KXSENATENE-26-DOSB, volume 105k), and Maine Republican at 34¢ (KXSENATEME-26-R, volume 6.5k). Primary season is in full swing: the Florida gubernatorial Republican nomination is a near-certainty for Byron Donalds at 96¢ (KXGOVFLNOMR-26-BD), while Wisconsin Democratic primary sees Francesca Hong leading at 69¢ (KXGOVWINOMD-26-FHON). Michigan Senate primary has Abdul El-Sayed favored at 66¢. These markets are highly liquid with tight spreads, making them ideal for traders wanting to express views on the political landscape.
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