2026 Midterms: Democrats Heavy House Favorites, Senate Toss-Up
Midterm control markets are active: Democrats at 81¢ to win House, Senate toss-up at 43¢. Key primaries (Michigan, Maine) and general election match-ups are driving volume. 2028 presidential nominee markets show no clear frontrunner—Newsom, Buttigieg, Ocasio-Cortez all below 20¢—while J.D. Vance leads Republican field at 41¢.
Cross-market probability snapshot
Will Democrats win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party
81¢Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party
44¢Will Abdul El-Sayed be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Michigan?: Abdul El-Sayed
76¢Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maine?: Democratic party
65¢Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: J.D. Vance
40¢Will Gavin Newsom be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2028?: Gavin Newsom
19¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
Midterm control markets are active: Democrats at 81¢ to win House, Senate toss-up at 43¢.
- 02
Key primaries (Michigan, Maine) and general election match-ups are driving volume.
- 03
2028 presidential nominee markets show no clear frontrunner—Newsom, Buttigieg, Ocasio-Cortez all below 20¢—while J.D.
Full analysis
The 2026 midterm election cycle is generating significant activity, particularly around the fight for Senate control. Democrats are favored to win the Senate (43¢ vs. 56¢ for Republicans), but control of the House is a stark contrast: Democrats win the House is priced at 81¢, implying a 4-in-5 chance of a split government. Key individual races driving these odds: Michigan Senate (Abdul El-Sayed at 77¢ for the Democratic nomination, 68¢ to win the general), Maine Senate (Democrats at 62¢), and Texas Senate (Republicans at 57¢). The presidential nomination markets are relatively quiet but notable: J.D. Vance (41¢ for GOP nominee) is the leading Republican pick, while Gavin Newsom (19¢) leads a fractured Democratic field. The 2028 presidential nominee markets provide a longer-term view, with Newsom, Buttigieg, and Ocasio-Cortez all below 20¢, signaling no clear frontrunner.
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sf query "2026 senate control" && sf book CONTROLS-2026-D